美联储风波不断，贵金属高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amid ongoing Fed turmoil, precious metals are in high - level oscillations. The short - term market sentiment fluctuates, but the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It's recommended to focus on tariff negotiation progress and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield first declined and then rose. Precious metals showed an inverse relationship, rising first and then falling. Silver was more resilient than gold. London gold traded between $3338 - $3439 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.02%. London silver reached a new high of $39.523 since September 2011, trading between $38 - $39.5, with a weekly gain of 1.88%. Affected by exchange rates, domestic precious metals underperformed overseas markets. Shanghai gold traded between 774 - 794 yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.46%. Shanghai silver traded between 9213 - 9526 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.28%. The US dollar index hovered between 97 - 98, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield ranged from 4.33% - 4.44%, remaining at a relatively high level [5] - Market trading was affected by Fed turmoil, trade negotiation progress, and US macro "hard" data. The Trump administration pressured the Fed, but the Treasury Secretary soothed market sentiment. Tariff negotiations accelerated, with a preliminary agreement reached between the US and Japan, while the game between the US and the EU continued. US macro data was generally strong, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year slightly adjusted downwards. Overall, there were more negative factors this week, limiting the upward trend of precious metals [5] - US macro data: The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [5] - US tariff progress: The EU passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff plan against the US, to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on Japan and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the US. Trump also said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries, but is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US [5] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, tariff negotiations between the US and other major economies have accelerated, easing market risk - aversion sentiment. The latest US employment and services PMI data show resilience, reducing market concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals. In the future, despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the benchmark scenario is inflation rebound and economic slowdown due to US tariff and policy uncertainties. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations [9] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for low - buying opportunities after a pullback [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Adopt the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Economy - GDP and Consumption - In 2024, the annual GDP growth rate reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove US GDP growth, with the service industry making a significant positive contribution. The investment sector also supported the economy [22] - In Q1 2025, affected by tariffs, the economy slowed down, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%. This mainly reflected increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [23] - The latest data shows that US residents' pessimistic expectations have eased. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 0.9%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5% [24][25] 3.2.2 US Economy - PMI Indicators - The two major PMI indicators in the US showed a divergence. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49 [27] 3.2.3 US Economy - Employment - Employment data shows that the US job market is temporarily stable. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate in June was 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 [32] 3.2.4 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - In June, the overall US CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3% but up from the previous month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The overall US CPI data showed a moderate rebound. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year slightly adjusted downwards [36] 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 ETF and CFTC Positions - The data shows the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [39] 3.3.2 Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Gold Council, the total gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons. Mine production reached 3661 tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Recycled gold totaled 1370 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Total gold demand was 4554 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase. Investment demand increased by 25% to 1180 tons, reaching a four - year high. Gold used in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%). Jewelry consumption hit a record low, only 1877 tons, a - 9% year - on - year decrease. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [42] - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again due to factors such as slowing global economic growth, high gold prices, and a slight decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Low interest rates, high - valued stocks, a weak US dollar, and geopolitical risks are favorable for gold ETF, over - the - counter, and futures investments. Central banks may again purchase over 1000 tons of gold. However, economic slowdown and high prices may pressure jewelry demand. Technology - related gold demand is expected to remain stable due to continued investment in artificial intelligence [42] 3.3.3 Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. In 2022, the purchase volume reached a record high of 1082 tons, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [52] - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons. In Q4, in an environment of falling gold prices and Trump's inauguration, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase [52] - Reasons for central bank gold purchases: China aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure, hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promote RMB internationalization. Poland wants to prevent geopolitical risks and enhance financial security. Turkey uses gold to combat currency depreciation and inflation, reduce the risk of US dollar system sanctions, and as a hedging tool under low - interest - rate policies. India aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure and enhance international financial influence [52] 3.3.4 Silver - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Silver Association, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. Global silver demand was 36208 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The demand mainly included 21166 tons for industrial use (6146 tons for photovoltaic use), 6491 tons for silver jewelry, 1686 tons for silverware, and 5938 tons for investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [54] - For 2025, the World Silver Association predicts that the supply will continue to grow by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver use remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons. The growth of the photovoltaic industry may be limited in 2025, and the trend of using less or no silver is emerging due to high silver prices [54] 3.3.5 Silver Inventory - Recently, the total visible silver inventory in major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low [61]