大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡为主

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, commodities rebounded strongly and urea fluctuated; this week, due to low demand, urea prices dropped. The market sentiment has been mediocre since the weekend, with the ex - factory quotes of urea in major regions leading the decline and weak transactions. In Shandong, the ex - factory quotes dropped significantly, while in Henan, they remained stable. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices followed the downward trend. [4] - Some urea production facilities are under maintenance, and the daily output has dropped to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. A new Indian tender has been announced. Considering the large price gap between domestic and international markets, the relaxation of export policies may boost the domestic market sentiment to some extent. [4] - The enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China is low, and grass - roots inventory preparation is lacking. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has slightly increased, but the inventory of urea can be used for about a week, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. [4] - This week, the inventory of urea production enterprises continued to drop to around 860,000 tons but remained high. The domestic supply is abundant, and overall demand is declining. Although the port inspection policy for exports has been relaxed, its impact on the domestic spot market is limited. [4] - In the short term, domestic demand is in a vacuum period. After the agricultural demand ends and compound fertilizer plants have not started large - scale production, the spot market sentiment is weak. Although the futures price is supported by the continuous strong rebound of domestic commodities, the upside is limited due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to short on rallies. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options on rebounds. [4] 2. Key Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 29th week of 2025 (July 17 - 23, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 85.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 76.50%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [5] - Supply - Shandong: The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 83.78%, a week - on - week increase of 8.08%. [5] - Demand - Melamine: In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24, 2025), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from the previous week. [5] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 33.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points. [5] - Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume: This week (July 18 - 25, 2025), the arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 25.00%. [5] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand: As of July 25, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 820 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.50%. [5] - Demand - Pre - orders: As of July 23, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.94 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. [5] - Inventory - Enterprises: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. [5] - Inventory - Ports: The sample inventory at ports was 543,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons. [5] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal increased. The spot price of urea remained stable overall. The profit of fixed - bed production was 220 yuan/ton, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 360 yuan/ton, and the profit of entrained - flow bed production was 580 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated widely, the basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was at par. [5]