花生现货回落，盘面震荡回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of common peanuts has declined, and the purchase price of oil mills has remained stable. The futures price of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to the low supply and weak demand of common peanuts, and the expected increase in the planting area and decrease in the planting cost of new - season peanuts [4]. - It is recommended to short 10 - contract peanuts above 8300, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of common peanuts has dropped, and the purchase price of oil mills has been stable. The开机率 of oil mills has slightly decreased, the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills has declined but remains at a high level. The 10 - contract peanut has fluctuated downward, and the 10 - 1 spread has decreased. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - Strategies: Short 10 - contract peanuts above 8300; conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high; try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: In the domestic market, the price of peanuts in Henan has declined. The price of common peanuts has generally decreased. The purchase price of oil mills has remained stable, and most oil mills have stopped purchasing. The price of imported peanuts has also remained stable [6][8]. - Domestic Demand: The开机率 of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the peanut inventory has declined. As of July 24, the开机率 of peanut oil mills was 4.29%, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The peanut inventory in oil mills was 10.7 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, and the peanut oil inventory was 3.9 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous week [9][11]. - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanut oil mills has remained stable, the price of peanut meal has slightly increased, and the price of peanut oil has remained stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills has increased to 143 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan increase from the previous week [12][14]. - Basis and Spread: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has stabilized around 100 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference is at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see [15][18]. - Peanut Import: The import volume of peanuts has significantly decreased. In June, the import of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the total import was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year [20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut Price: The price of peanuts in different regions shows different trends. For example, the price of new - season peanuts in Henan has decreased, while the price in some other regions has remained stable or slightly increased. The purchase price of oil mills is generally in the range of 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the price of Sudanese peanuts is 8350 yuan/ton, both remaining stable [8]. - Domestic Demand: The开机率 of oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory has also declined [9][11]. - Pressing Profit: The pressing profit of oil mills has increased due to the stable purchase price of peanuts, the slightly increased price of peanut meal, and the stable price of peanut oil [12][14]. - Basis and Spread: The 10 - 1 spread of peanuts has decreased and stabilized around 100 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference is at a high level [18]. - Peanut Import: The import volume of peanut kernels has decreased significantly, while the export volume has increased. The import volume of peanut oil has increased [20][22]. - Other Data: There are also data on the price difference between different peanut contracts, the import price and quantity of peanut oil from different countries, and the price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal [29][45][46].