Telling Holding(SZ:000829) Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-26 11:09Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading distributor in the 3C product sector, with a diversified business model that benefits from opportunities in the AI-driven consumer electronics industry and value chain restructuring [1][12]. - The company has experienced a short-term revenue decline but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the smartphone market and the growth of its e-commerce business [2][20]. - The company has established a strong marketing network and deep partnerships with major smartphone brands, which positions it well for future growth [43][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Diversification - The company has expanded its business from mobile phone distribution to include smart terminal sales, e-commerce, lottery, mobile internet, and mobile resale, becoming a large conglomerate [1][12]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.18 million yuan, down 62.72% year-on-year [20]. 2. Smartphone Market Recovery and E-commerce Opportunities - The global smartphone market is projected to recover in 2024, with a 7% increase in shipments compared to 2023, reaching 1.22 billion units [2][29]. - The company has a well-established distribution network and is actively expanding its e-commerce presence, with a significant increase in the number of stores under its e-commerce subsidiary, reaching 446 stores, an 80% increase from 2023 [2][52]. 3. Strategic Partnerships and Channel Development - The company maintains deep partnerships with leading smartphone brands such as Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, which enhances its market position [43][45]. - The company has developed a comprehensive marketing network in China, with over 2,311 managed stores and a strong online presence through platforms like JD.com and Douyin [43][45]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 0.01 billion yuan in 2025, 0.64 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.94 billion yuan in 2027 [59]. - The report emphasizes the company's significant scale advantages and its successful expansion into e-commerce, supporting the "Hold" investment rating [59].