纯碱玻璃周报-20250726

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti -内卷 trading in the soda ash and glass industries has entered an accelerated stage, with prices in a rapid upward phase due to industry self - regulation and supply - side policy details, but the industry may struggle to break free from the prisoner's dilemma without strong policy pressure [14][23] - For soda ash, the next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited maintenance premiums and scale. The current market has not returned to the industrial logic. The market is experiencing a hoarding wave, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback from future price drops [7][10] - For glass, although the production and sales have improved recently, the actual demand is still in doubt. The deep - processing orders have not improved, and attention should be paid to the conversion of expectations into reality and the roll - over of futures contracts [20][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 72.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 tons (-1.3%). The decrease was due to the maintenance of enterprises such as Xuzhou Fengcheng, Jiangsu Shilian, and Zhongyuan Chemical III. Gansu Jinchang is planned to have a one - month maintenance starting from July 26. The next large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, with limited premiums and scale [7] - The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was -35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 48.20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was 17.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton [7] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 76.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.9 tons (a 12.3% increase), and for light soda ash was 35.6 tons (an 8.8% increase). The market hoarding wave continued, and the number of hoarding manufacturers gradually increased [10] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 186.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 tons. Light soda ash was de - stocked by 4.1 tons, and heavy soda ash by 0.02 tons. Except for the northwest region, the shipment rates in other regions exceeded 100%, and the northwest region had an inventory increase of 5 tons [13] - Middle - stream: The middle - stream inventory showed a downward trend. The social inventory increased by 23.7% week - on - week to 30.5 tons, and there were 856 warehouse receipts [13] - Downstream: The soda ash inventory days of some sample float glass enterprises increased [13] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily melting volume of float glass was 15.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,150 tons. One production line was shut down during the week. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was -178.90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.21 yuan/ton; using coal - made gas was 121.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.05 yuan/ton; using petroleum coke was -4.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.71 yuan/ton [17] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment publicly solicited opinions on the "Technical Guidelines for Feasible Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the Glass Industry (Draft for Comment)", with stricter carbon emission management compared to 2018 [17][23] 3.2.2 Demand - This week, the production and sales of glass improved, with strong speculative demand and manufacturers' inventory reduction. However, the deep - processing orders did not improve. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.0% [20] 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the glass inventory decreased by 4.7% to 61.896 million heavy boxes. The replenishment willingness of the middle and downstream increased, but there was still pressure from locked - in inventory on the futures market, and the downstream's rigid demand digestion ability was limited [23] 3.3 Price and Market Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash - The spot and futures prices of soda ash both increased this week. For example, the price of Huazhong heavy - quality soda ash (delivered) increased from 1,200 yuan/ton last week to 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [26] 3.3.2 Glass - The spot and futures prices of glass also rose. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall glass increased from 1,160 yuan/ton last week to 1,297 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.81% [122]