玉米拍卖持续，盘面底部震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and it's likely to be affected by weather speculation later. The downside space of the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel is limited. The 09 corn contract is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 2280 and resistance at 2330. The 09 corn and starch price spread will still fluctuate within a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [3]. - The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand remains weak, but提货 volume has increased, leading to a decline in starch inventory. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, and starch factories are still suffering significant losses [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. Northeast corn prices are falling, North - port inventory is decreasing, and North - port spot prices are stable. North China corn supply is tight, and 09 corn is oscillating at the bottom, affected by the auction volume [3]. - Starch: The开机 rate of starch factories is decreasing, downstream demand is weak,提货 volume increases, and inventory decreases. Starch spot prices are stable, and factories are in significant losses [3]. - Trading Strategies: Consider buying the US corn December contract below 420 cents per bushel. The 09 corn will oscillate between 2280 - 2330. It's advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3][4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - Weather and Supply - Demand: The US corn planting is completed, the July report is flat, and the weather is good, resulting in bottom - level oscillation. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. Domestic import profits have expanded. As of July 17, the US corn export inspection this week was 1.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of 58.11 million tons. In June, 160,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to June, 790,000 tons were imported, compared to 1.105 billion tons in the same period last year [6]. - Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production: As of July 15, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 130,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production has rebounded. The US corn December contract is expected to have limited downside space below 420 cents per bushel [11]. Domestic - Deep - processing and Feed: Deep - processing consumption, inventory, and feed enterprise corn inventory are all decreasing. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 17 - July 24), 1.0624 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. As of July 23, the inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 4.005 million tons, a 6.21% decrease from the previous week. As of July 24, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 30.87 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous week but a 0.65% increase compared to the same period last year [14]. - Port Inventory: North - port corn inventory is decreasing, while South - port grain inventory is increasing. On July 18, the corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a weekly decrease of 97,000 tons, and the four - port shipping volume was 340,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 262,000 tons. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 122,000 tons to 1.826 million tons [17]. - Starch: The开机 rate of deep - processing is decreasing. From July 17 to July 23, the national corn processing volume was 501,500 tons, and the starch production was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. The开机 rate was 45.46%, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The profit loss has expanded, and starch inventory is decreasing. As of July 23, the corn starch inventory was 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week [20]. - Substitutes: Wheat prices are basically stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, the North China corn price is rebounding, the Northeast corn price is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is expanding, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract is rising [26]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry: From July 17 - July 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 72 yuan per head, a decrease of 43 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit of buying piglets for fattening was - 117 yuan per head, a decrease of 46 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.88 yuan per bird, compared to - 2.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the profit was - 0.32 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.77 yuan per catty last week [32][37]. - Deep - processing Consumption: This week, the开机 rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 56.71%, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of maltose syrup was 45.04%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week. The开机 rate of corrugated paper was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week, and the开机 rate of boxboard paper was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [40]. - Prices of Corn and Substitutes: Relevant price trends and price differences of corn and its substitutes are presented through various price charts, such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, etc. [42][43]