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大宗市场情绪偏强,甲醇震荡为主
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-26 11:13

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment for bulk commodities is strong, and methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The international methanol device operating rate has slightly increased, imports are gradually recovering, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories are accumulating. The domestic coal price continues to decline, the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to the highest level in history, and the domestic supply is loose. However, the recent strong rebound of domestic bulk commodities has improved the market atmosphere [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a bullish and fluctuating trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Raw material coal: As of July 24, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 48%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 4 million tons, with good demand and firm pit - mouth prices [4]. - Supply side: The price of raw material coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - Import side: The international methanol device operating rate continues to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, imports are back in a positive spread situation. Iranian devices are gradually increasing their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, the external market operating rate has reached a new high this year, the European and American markets continue to decline, the price difference between China and Europe has flattened, the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 600,000 tons in July, and continues to lower the price for tendering. Some Indian supplies are flowing to China, non - Iranian supplies are increasing, the arrival in Taicang is increasing, and inventory accumulation is accelerating [4]. - Demand side: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Inventory: The arrival of imports has increased, port inventories are accumulating, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of July 24, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 70.37%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week but an increase of 8.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 65.47%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From July 19 - 25, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output was 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [5]. - Supply - Import: As of July 23, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 173,800 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of July 24, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 79.28%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 86.08%, with a slight decrease in the load of East China olefin enterprises [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, remaining the same as last week; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 92.69%, a slight increase; the formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease from last week [5]. - Demand - Direct sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 17.46% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The inventory of production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 244,800 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.70% [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of July 23, 2025, the total port inventory was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous period [5]. - Valuation: In the northwest region, the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the north line was 440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong was 150 yuan/ton. The MTO loss was narrowing, and the basis was weakening [5]. - Spot prices: The price in Taicang was 2480 (+110), and the price in the north line was 2040 (+70) [8].