资金“过山车”后，跨月压力如何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the liquidity demand remained high, and the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the rise of the stock market and some commodities led to the unexpected convergence of the capital market. The capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight, with overnight capital interest rates rising and large - bank net lending first increasing and then decreasing. Next week, as the month - end approaches, the central bank's attitude of timely support remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved, but the central bank's response to large - scale open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending scale will be important determinants of the month - end capital market and interest rates [2][11][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Analysis of the Pressure at the Month - End after the "Roller - Coaster" of Funds - This week, due to large liquidity demand and the central bank's withdrawal of tax - period liquidity, the capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight. Overnight capital interest rates reached a relatively high level since June, large - bank net lending first increased and then decreased, and the primary and secondary prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) rose slightly in the second half of the week. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed by - 2.56, - 2.77, 0.23, and 1.55BP respectively compared with the previous week. The week - average of the capital stratification between R001 and DR001 decreased by 0.21BP, and that between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.32BP [11] - The reasons for the unexpected convergence of the capital market are the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the diversion of bond - market funds by the rising stock market and some commodities. Next week, the central bank's support attitude remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved as the issuance scale of government bonds and the maturity scale of CDs decline, and fiscal expenditures may accelerate at the end of the month. However, the central bank's response to open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending will be crucial [24][25][26] 3.2. Open Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Slightly Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase was issued 165.63 billion yuan and matured 172.68 billion yuan, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) was issued 40 billion yuan and redeemed 20 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - deposit was issued 10 billion yuan and matured 12 billion yuan. From July 28 to August 1, the open - market maturity will be 165.63 billion yuan, all of which are 7 - day reverse repurchases [3][30] 3.3. Government Bonds: The Issuance Scale Will Decrease Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 51.72 billion yuan, including 18 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 33.72 billion yuan of local bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 30.76 billion yuan. This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 1.07 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.8421 trillion yuan this year and an issuance progress of 62%. The issuance of new local bonds was 22.87 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.1534 trillion yuan and an issuance progress of 61% [41][42] 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52pct. The predicted excess reserve at the end of June is about 403.68 billion yuan. From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was 5.49 billion yuan, and the reserve payment was - 14 billion yuan [46][47] 3.5. Money Market: The Net Lending of Large Banks First Increased and then Decreased - Most capital interest rates increased. As of July 25, compared with July 18, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 increased by 6.08, 14.56, 6.41, and 18.65BP respectively. The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 2.72 and 0.08BP respectively to 1.47% and 1.51%. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 18.16 and - 7.62BP respectively to 1.56% and 1.63%. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.21 and 4.82BP respectively to 1.53% and 1.57%. The weekly average of six - month national - share transfer and six - month city - commercial transfer interest rates changed by - 0.1pct to 0.74% and 0.85% respectively [49][55][58] - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.6986 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan compared with July 14 - 18. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1359 trillion yuan, an increase of 450 million yuan compared with July 14 - 18 [60] - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.18 trillion yuan, a change of 175.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The average net lending of large state - owned banks was 3.87 trillion yuan, a change of 253.5 billion yuan compared with last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a change of - 0.1% compared with last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.69 trillion yuan, a change of - 77.9 billion yuan compared with last week [65] 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 51.57 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 55.43 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By term, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale and net financing [72] - Next week (July 28 - August 3), the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs will be 40.29 billion yuan, a decrease compared with this week. The maturity scale is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month CDs [82] - The weighted issuance term of inter - bank CDs this week was 7.25 months, a compression compared with last week's 8.3 months. The issuance success rate of share - holding banks was the highest, and the 3 - month issuance success rate was the highest among different terms [76][78] 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increased - Driven by the marginal convergence of the capital market this week, the secondary yields of CDs increased significantly. The yields of AAA - rated CDs of all terms increased, and the yields of 1 - year CDs of all ratings increased [96] - Compared with the previous week, the spreads between 1 - year CDs and R007, R001, 7 - day OMO, and 1 - year treasury bonds changed to - 1.87BP, 12.28BP, 27.5BP, and 29.15BP respectively [100]