钢材：市场情绪推涨，钢材震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is driven by market sentiment, with prices fluctuating upward. Overall, steel itself may lack price drivers and will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, following raw materials. If over - production verification is implemented, it may raise the price center of steel, while the disk profit will continue to shrink [1][7] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading, opportunistically intervening in positive spreads when the basis is low for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650). The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). Short - process steel production resumed due to full profit in off - peak electricity, and long - process steel profit increased to over 100, with pig iron production remaining high. The daily consumption of scrap steel increased to over 510,000 tons [4] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The apparent demand for building materials rebounded significantly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined seasonally. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in China from January to June decreased month - on - month, and the real estate market was still weak. The manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in production and exports, but the profit was shrinking. The home appliance industry entered the off - season, and the export situation might continue to decline [4] - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11,600 tons [4] - Outlook: The steel production reduction slowed down, rebar inventory decreased while hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The apparent demand for building materials rebounded, and market sentiment improved. The steel market will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro - policies [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3,410 yuan (+160), and in Beijing was 3,340 yuan (+150). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan (+130), and in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan (+200) [13] - Profit: The long - process steel profit increased to over 100. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace was - 23.75 yuan (+133), and the off - peak electricity profit was +141 yuan (+133) [4][29] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Domestic Macroeconomy: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The National Energy Administration will conduct a coal production verification. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law. In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M1 - M2 improved. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +2.8%, with a continued decline in growth rate [35][45] - Overseas Macroeconomy: In the US, the initial jobless claims decreased, and the manufacturing PMI remained stable. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization [4] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). The small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650) [65][69] - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The construction material demand showed a certain recovery, and the cement usage also reflected the demand situation. The export of steel was still high, but the demand in the manufacturing off - season was under pressure [72][83] - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total [4]