债市短线快速回调

Report Overview - The report focuses on the weekly market trends of treasury bond futures, including price movements, yield curve changes, and influencing factors, and provides market logic and trading strategies [26] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the short - term sharp decline this week, treasury bond futures prices may stabilize. The anti - involution policy implementation may be relatively mild, and the short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the upcoming economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention. The trading strategy is for trading - type investments to conduct band operations [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fell continuously with significant retracements. The 30 - year treasury bond dropped 2.14%, the 10 - year dropped 0.58%, the 5 - year dropped 0.41%, and the 2 - year dropped 0.12% [4] 3.2 Changes in Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve - As of July 25, compared with July 18, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted upward overall. The 2 - year yield rose from 1.38% to 1.44%, the 5 - year from 1.53% to 1.60%, the 10 - year from 1.67% to 1.73%, and the 30 - year from 1.89% to 1.97% [6] 3.3 Market Risk Preference and Related Influencing Factors - This week, market risk preference increased, showing an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect [9] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, it was 230,000 square meters, a 12% year - on - year decrease. In May, it was 260,000 square meters, a 3% decrease. In June, it was 310,000 square meters, an 8.4% decrease. From July 1 to 25, it was 200,000 square meters, a 20% decrease [12] - In the first half of July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, with a faster decline in the US - West route. The CCFI US - West route index reached a recent high of 1256.91 on June 20 and then declined. The CCFI composite index reached a recent high of 1369.34 on June 27 and fell to 1261.35 on July 25 [15] - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, driving up the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index [18] 3.4 Commodity Market Conditions - On Friday night, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly. After five consecutive days of rapid price increases in the first five days of this week, coking coal prices dropped sharply on Friday night after the exchange issued a risk warning, indicating that the short - term rapid rise may end [21] 3.5 Capital Interest Rate Situation - This week, the fluctuation of capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.44% this week, compared with 1.47% last week. DR001 rose from a weighted average of over 1.3% in the first three days to 1.65% and 1.52% on Thursday and Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.54% this week, compared with 1.53% last week. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65% this week, compared with 1.63% last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategies - Market Logic: The announcement of anti - involution policies increased market risk preference, causing stocks and commodity futures to rise and treasury bond futures to fall. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand. The short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end, and treasury bond futures prices may stabilize after a sharp decline. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention [26] - Trading Strategy: Band operations for trading - type investments [26]