油脂周报：高频出口走弱，短空-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - International Oils and Fats: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - Domestic Oils and Fats: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - Weather in Palm - Producing Areas: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Inventory Situation: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - Oils and Fats Trading Volume: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - Biodiesel Profit: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]