锰硅周报：市场亢奋情绪极致释放，注意情绪退坡后的大幅回落风险及套保机会-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bullish sentiment of commodities driven by the unfalsifiable "anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform 2.0 expectations is the dominant factor for the price of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon. The speculative behavior of short - term funds has made the price deviate from the actual fundamentals. Although it's hard to determine if the price has reached the short - term peak, the significant reduction in positions and drop of coking coal on the night of July 25 may symbolize the end of the short - term exuberant sentiment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [15][96] - In the long - term, both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector, will face a situation of weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of a rapid decline in the demand for coil products and a significant drop in high - level hot metal production [15][96] 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Summary: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton. The production cost increased, with Inner Mongolia at 5964 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5924 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6194 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. The estimated visible inventory was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons [14] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was at a low level, production profit continued to be in the red, production increased, rebar production was weak, hot metal production remained high, visible inventory continued to decline but remained high, and the tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [15] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [15] 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 3.47%, at a low level in historical statistics [20] 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - Profit: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from last week; Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton; and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [25] - Cost: The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5964 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton from last week; in Ningxia, it was 5924 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton; and in Guangxi, it was 6194 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The main producing area's electricity price remained stable. In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. As of July 18, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 428.5 tons, down 4.2 tons [27][30][33] 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 75.23 tons, up 0.93 tons, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 15.67 tons or 3.10% year - on - year [44] - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 63.54%, up 3.47 percentage points [58][61][62] 3.1.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons, continuing to decline but remaining at a high level. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 20.5 tons, down 1.13 tons. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days, at a historical low [69][72][75] 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the manganese silicon futures price broke through the upper pressure level on July 25 and rose sharply, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 624 yuan/ton or 10.74%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend and accelerated upwards. Pay attention to the pressure around the gap of 6586 - 6644 yuan/ton [81] Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Summary: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The production cost in the main producing areas remained stable [95] - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was at a low level, production profit rebounded significantly, production continued to increase, hot metal production remained high, export and magnesium metal demand were average, inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period, and the steel tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [96] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [96] 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics [101] 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - Profit: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [106] - Cost: The silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable, and the semi - coke small material price was 590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The electricity price in the main producing areas remained stable, and the production cost in the main producing areas remained basically stable [109][112] 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.23 tons, up 0.23 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 0.26% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 41.4 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to June increased by 5.48 tons or 2.08% year - on - year [117] - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The export profit of ferrosilicon was 63 yuan/ton, significantly weakening, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 419 million tons, down 450 tons or 1.06% year - on - year [126][129][132] 3.2.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days, and the raw material inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, at a historical low [140][143] 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rebound and rose sharply on July 25, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 690 yuan/ton or 12.46%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend, broke through the upper edge of the flag - shaped channel, and entered the acceleration phase. Pay attention to the pressure around 6300 yuan/ton and 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton [149]