甲醇周报：商品情绪降温，价格高位回落-20250726

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, influenced by domestic policies, the sentiment is positive, but as the sentiment becomes overheated, methanol's fundamentals struggle to support continuous price increases, and it may face short - term correction pressure. The price and volatility are relatively high, and as the sentiment cools, the price may decline. Fundamentally, upstream production has bottomed out and is rising, and enterprise profits are still good, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. On the demand side, MTO profits have declined again, port production remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off - season. Subsequently, it will gradually shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face correction pressure. Given the relatively high price volatility, the profit - loss ratio of unilateral participation is low. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options at high prices. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Affected by the anti - involution policy, the black sector has risen continuously and significantly. Methanol has been more affected by sentiment and has followed the sharp rise. However, on the night of July 25th, domestic commodities fell significantly, with methanol dropping more than 3%. The sentiment has cooled, and the market faces further correction risks. Methanol's own contradictions do not support a unilateral sharp rise, and attention should be paid to price risks under high volatility. [11] - Fundamentals - Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization is 83.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. The arrival volume is 17.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.66 tons, and overseas production capacity utilization is further rising. [11] - Demand: Port olefin production capacity utilization is 79.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95%, with little overall change. Traditional demand: formaldehyde production capacity utilization has declined, dimethyl ether has remained stable, and the production capacity utilization of acetic acid, chlorides, and MTBE has increased. It is currently the off - season. [11] - Valuation: MTO profits have declined again and are at a relatively low level. The price ratio of methanol to related products is at a medium - high level, with a neutral - to - high valuation. [11] - Inventory: Port inventory is 72.58 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.44 tons. The decline in arrivals combined with improved market sentiment has led to a reduction in port inventory. Enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons, and is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The pending order volume is 24.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 tons. [11] - Market Logic: Currently, the sentiment is positive due to domestic policies, but as the sentiment becomes overheated, methanol's fundamentals cannot support continuous price increases, and it may face short - term correction pressure. In the short term, it is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. As the sentiment becomes overheated, both the price and volatility are at relatively high levels. As the sentiment cools, the price may decline. [11] - Strategy: Observe or consider selling out - of - the - money call options under high volatility. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts, including the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol prices, methanol 09 basis, and methanol 9 - 1 spread, to show the price trends and relationships in the futures and spot markets. [20] 3. Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded. [31] - Production Profits: Enterprise profits are still good. [39] - Regional Inventory: Enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. [43] 4. Supply Side - Capacity: In 2025, new methanol production capacity in the northwest region will reach 745 tons, including projects from Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Gansu Liuhua, Xinjiang Zhongtai New Materials, etc. [51] - Upstream Production and Capacity Utilization: Production capacity utilization has continued to decline but is expected to bottom out gradually. [53] - Import Volume: The report provides data and trends on imports from Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, etc., as well as arrival volumes in different regions. [59][63][67] - International Price Differences: The report shows the import profit, price differences between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe, etc. [70] - Regional Price Differences: Port price differences have declined, and regional price differences have been repaired. [72] - Domestic Freight: The report provides data on methanol freight prices from different regions. [81] 5. Demand Side - Demand Projection: The report provides charts on consumption volume, ending inventory, olefin production capacity utilization, and profits of downstream products such as PP, EG, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether. [85][87][98] - Downstream Inventory: Downstream raw material inventory is at a high level. [104] - Related Product Price Ratios: Methanol's valuation is relatively high. [107] 6. Options - Related - Methanol Options: The report provides data on methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and implied volatility. [112][114] 7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides charts of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis. [117][119]