沥青周报：估值弱势延续-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the crude oil cost side has returned to normal. As the small off - season in August approaches, the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken, and the valuation ratio is expected to remain volatile. However, with the approaching hurricane season in the US in September, the asphalt profit is expected to be gradually compressed by unexpected device impacts on the crude oil cost side, thus lowering the valuation. Meanwhile, the asphalt's own operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be further relaxed. The domestic "anti - involution" macro - orientation is not expected to cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, so the short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio is maintained [15]. - In the medium - term, the import of asphalt is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved compared with previous years, but the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. The upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the widening volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Overall, the asphalt valuation is likely to decline in the second half of the year [16]. - In the short - term, the supply side shows a neutral situation, the demand side is bearish, the inventory side is slightly bearish, and the cost side is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, and the increase in cracking profit will stimulate refinery production and lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The current crude oil cost side has returned to normal, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken as the August small off - season approaches. The asphalt operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be more abundant [15]. - Medium - term Impact Factors and Evaluation: Import is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat. Oil prices are expected to have limited upward space in the second half of the year, and the asphalt valuation is likely to decline [16]. - Short - term Factor Evaluation: Supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is slightly bearish, and cost is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption, and refinery production will be stimulated to lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - Basis Trend: The report shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [29][30]. - Term Structure: The report presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [32][33][34]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt [42][43]. - Import: The report presents the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, as well as the import profit from different regions [45][47][49]. - Valuation Ratio: The report shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [57][58]. - Refinery Profit: The report presents the refining profits of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][61][63][64]. 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: The report shows the domestic total inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [68][69][71][73]. - Warehouse Receipts: The report presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [76][77]. - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: The report shows the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [79][80]. 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: The report presents the asphalt shipment volumes of sample enterprises in East China, North China, and other regions [85][86][88]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The report shows the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [92][93][97]. - Highway Investment: The report presents the cumulative highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [99][100]. - Road - Related Machinery: The report presents the monthly sales of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative highway construction investment [103][104]. - Related Consumption: The report presents the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [106]. 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: The report presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [109][111][112]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: The report shows the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [119][120]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: The report shows the classification of asphalt from the production process and usage perspectives, and its main applications [121][123].