蛋白粕周报：国内压力增大，外盘成本支撑-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. However, the import cost of domestic soybeans is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially. - The domestic double - meal market: the domestic soybean meal spot price has followed the futures price down this week. The domestic market has weak trading volume, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly decreased to 8.19 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The soybean purchase agreement, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption have suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. - Overall, the soybean meal market is intertwined with long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The pressure of a good harvest due to favorable weather and the positive impact of trade agreements on exports were intertwined. The USDA July monthly report maintained the US soybean production level at about 118 million tons in the 25/26 season, with the crushing volume increased by 1.36 million tons and the export volume decreased by 1.91 million tons. The inventory increased by about 410,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 6.68% to 7.06%. South American old - crop soybeans are also in a state of good harvest, and the global soybean supply still exceeds demand. The USDA monthly report reduced the export of Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season, and the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 29.54% to 29.65%. - Domestic Double - Meal: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price followed the futures price down. Information such as possible soybean purchase agreements, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption has suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. As of July 22, the shipping volume in March was 13.79 million tons, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.5 million tons in July, 8.84 million tons in August, 6.2 million tons in September, and 1.06 million tons in October. The shipping progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. - Strategy Recommendations: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Prices: Figures 1 and 2 show the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong respectively over the years. - Basis of Main Contracts: Figures 3 and 4 show the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract respectively. - Spreads: Figures 5 - 8 show various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, the soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. - Fund Positions: Figures 9 and 10 show the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds respectively [17][19][22][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Figures 11 - 14 show the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate respectively over the years. - Weather Conditions: Figures 15 and 16 show the weighted precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas and the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas respectively, with forecasts up to August 9, 2025. - El Niño Situation: Figures 17 - 20 show the CFS El Niño outlook, La Niña occurrence probability, and the impact of La Niña on precipitation in North America and climate in South America. - US Soybean Processing and Related Data: Figures 21 - 24 show the US soybean processing profit, the spot price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois, the US monthly soybean processing volume, and the NOPA soybean oil inventory. - US Soybean Export Progress: Figures 25 - 28 show the US soybean's total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China. - China's Oilseed Imports: Figures 29 and 30 show the monthly import volume and forecast of soybeans and rapeseeds in China. - China's Oil Mill Processing Situation: Figures 31 and 32 show the soybean processing volume and rapeseed processing volume of major oil mills in China [31][34][36][46][50][53][55]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Figures 33 and 34 show the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills. - Protein Meal Inventory: Figures 35 and 36 show the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills. - Protein Meal Processing Profit: Figures 37 and 38 show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [59][62][64]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Demand Data: Figures 39 and 40 show the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal. - Breeding Profit: Figures 41 and 42 show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][69].