锡周报：缅甸复产持续推进，锡价后市或将承压-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated strongly. In terms of supply, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing steadily, with the expectation of increased production in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term smelters in China still face raw material supply pressure, and processing fees are at historical lows. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is still at a low level. In terms of demand, domestic off - season consumption remains poor, with overall weak orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. In June, the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises declined significantly compared to May, while overseas demand for tin continues to be strong driven by AI computing power. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly this week. As of July 18, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,096 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last Friday. Overall, the tin supply is at a low level, and the demand side is also weak. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing. A resumption meeting was held this week, and some mining license applications were approved. Tin ore production is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure, processing fees are at historical lows, and the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remain low [11]. - Imports and Exports: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [11]. - Demand: Off - season consumption is poor, with weak overall orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July have also declined significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the market is waiting and watching. The demand for tin in the tin - plating and chemical industries is relatively stable [11]. - Conclusion: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, despite the current low - level supply and weak demand [11][12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents the charts of the basis of Shanghai Tin main - contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is provided [19][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The report shows the charts of tin export and import profits, but no specific analysis content is provided [25][26]. - Inventory: The report shows the charts of China's social inventory and LME inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [28]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain low [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - Tin Ore Imports: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51% [11]. - Refined Tin Production: Affected by the shortage of raw materials and low processing fees, the domestic refined tin production in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - Imports and Exports of Unforged Non - Alloy Tin: In May, 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [41]. 3.6 Demand Side - 2024 Consumption Structure: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominates, and the increase comes from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption has also driven the growth of tin consumption, but the overall growth rate is lower than that in China, showing a trend of stronger domestic and weaker overseas consumption [51]. - Semiconductor Sales: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - Photovoltaic Industry: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. However, the component production schedule in June decreased significantly compared to the previous month [62]. - Home Appliance Industry: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods appliances, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in July was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous year; and the production schedule of washing machines was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year [70].