国债周报：债市后续调整空间或有限-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment space of the bond market in the future may be limited. Although the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market and triggered a certain redemption negative feedback, considering the weak recovery of domestic demand and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. In the medium - to long - term, the bond market should be considered for long - position entry at low levels [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Situation: The economic data remains resilient under the influence of tariffs. The economic growth in the second quarter slightly exceeded expectations, with production outperforming demand. After the tariff relaxation, exports improved, but the sustainability of the "rush - to - export" effect remains to be seen. In June, the CPI rebounded year - on - year, while industrial product prices continued to face pressure. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "big and beautiful" bill, which is beneficial for boosting the U.S. economic growth outlook, but the relaxation of fiscal discipline in some developed countries may lead to an increase in long - term bond yields and risk spill - over effects [10]. - Foreign Investment: Foreign investment in RMB assets has generally remained stable this year. The scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds has increased, with the total amount of foreign - held domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, reaching a historically high level. In the first half of the year, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years, especially in May and June when the net - increase scale reached $18.8 billion [10]. - Social Security Reform: The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will steadily promote reforms such as the national overall planning of endowment insurance and the delay of the legal retirement age, and cooperate with relevant departments to implement policies and measures for individual pensions [10]. - Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure: From January to June, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, national tax revenue was 9.2915 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 2.2651 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The national general public budget expenditure was 14.1271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [10]. - Bond Fund Redemption: As the bond market continued to adjust, bond funds faced another redemption wave. This week, funds sold a large amount of bonds, with a single - day selling scale approaching 100 billion yuan. Since July, more than 30 bond fund products have announced large - scale redemptions and increased the precision of share net value [10]. - International News: In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. The Bank of Japan believes that the trade agreement with the U.S. will reduce uncertainties and expects to have enough data by the end of the year to weigh an interest rate hike [10]. - Economic Data: The U.S. durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2 [10]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 400 billion yuan in MLF, and 100 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits. With 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan in MLF, and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, the net investment was 10.95 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.65% [11]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.74%, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 BP; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.99%, a week - on - week increase of 9.15 BP. The latest 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 BP [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to long - term, considering the weak domestic demand recovery and the expected continued loosening of funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. However, the recent positive sentiment in the commodity and stock markets has suppressed the bond market. At the current position, the adjustment space of the bond market is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to enter the market at low levels. The recommended strategy is to go long at low levels with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months [11][13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL through multiple charts, but no specific analysis is provided [16][19][22][25][28][33]. 3.3. Main Economic Data 3.3.1. Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [42]. - PMI Sub - items: In June, both the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry improved, with the production side outperforming the demand side. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2% [48]. - Price Index: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.13% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.74% year - on - year [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 4.8% [57]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.8%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 7.5%. The month - on - month decrease in second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.6% [60]. - Real Estate Construction and Sales: In June, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 303.64 million square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.33321 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion data in June decreased by 2.16% year - on - year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [63][66]. 3.3.2. Foreign Economy - U.S. Economy: In the first quarter, the annualized U.S. GDP at current prices was 2.9977 trillion dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.05% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.3%. In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. The U.S. durable goods orders in June increased by 10.93% year - on - year. The number of non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.0, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8 [69][72][75]. - EU and Eurozone: The EU's GDP in the first quarter increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, and the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2. The Eurozone's CPI in June increased by 2.0% year - on - year [75][78]. 3.4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In June, the M1 growth rate was 4.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%. The social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were nearly 2.24 trillion yuan. The growth of social financing mainly came from government bonds [83]. - Social Financing Sub - items: In June, the growth rate of government bonds in social financing continued to rebound, and the financing of the real - sector improved. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.06%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 21.30% [86]. - Central Bank Operations: In June, the MLF balance was 5.15 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net investment through reverse repurchases was 120.11 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.52% [89]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: The table shows the changes in various interest rates, including repo rates, Treasury bond yields, and U.S. Treasury bond yields. For example, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 7.07 BP week - on - week, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 BP week - on - week [93]. - Interest Rate Charts: The report presents the trends of Treasury bond yields, U.S. Treasury bond yields, and the yields of UK, French, German, and Italian Treasury bonds through multiple charts [95][98]. - Exchange Rate Chart: A chart shows the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [99].