Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate declined, and the tight supply situation in the spot market has eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases, and the trading volume was average. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year to 47 - 52.5 tons, with the average value 2 - 3 tons lower than the previous target [12]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, including the Politburo meeting in China, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. Industrially, the tight supply of copper raw materials remains, but due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, the upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined, and the tight supply in the spot market eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year [12]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. The increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, and if the US copper tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. The upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: Copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 1.07% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper rose 0.02% to 9796 dollars/ton [24]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper showed certain changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 79,580 yuan on July 25, 2025 [26]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic copper price rose first and then fell, and the basis quotation declined with the increase in supply. The spot in East China was at a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday. The LME inventory continued to increase, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import had a small loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) increased [29]. - Structure: The contango structure of SHFE copper's near - month contracts expanded slightly, and the contango structure of LME copper contracted slightly [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) of imported copper concentrate increased slightly to - 42.6 dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [37]. - Import and Export Ratio: No specific content provided. - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper expanded slightly [42]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 42.7 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 7.1 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons month - on - month. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, and the inventory in Shanghai increased slightly. The number of copper warrants decreased by 22106 to 16133 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [45][48][51]. 4. Supply Side - Monthly Output of Electrolytic Copper: According to SMM's survey data, China's refined copper output declined slightly in June 2025, and it is expected to increase again in July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic refined copper output in June 2025 was 130.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 736.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [56]. - Import and Export Situation: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports were 235 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 1475.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 46.4 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 263.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The imports of anode copper in June were 6.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 38.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The refined copper imports in June were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. The exports of refined copper in June were 7.9 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons month - on - month. The imports of recycled copper in June were 18.3 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 114.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI returning above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved steadily [81]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In June, the year - on - year output growth was seen in industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators, AC motors, and power generation equipment. The output of power generation equipment continued to grow at a high rate, while the output of color TVs decreased year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year output growth was seen in power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [84]. - Real Estate Data: The domestic real estate data remained weak from January to June. New construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreased year - on - year. The decline in sales and construction areas widened, while the decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in June [87]. - Downstream Enterprises' Operating Rate: The operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises declined in June and is expected to continue to decline in July. The operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises rebounded in June and is expected to decline in July. The operating rates of other downstream enterprises such as enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises also showed different trends of decline or increase in June and corresponding expectations for July [90][93][96][99]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Position: The total position of SHFE copper increased by 22396 to 1021138 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2508 contract was 179194 lots (bilateral) [106]. - Foreign Fund Position: As of July 22, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 13.5%. The increase in short - positions was slightly greater than that in long - positions. The proportion of long - positions of LME investment funds declined (as of July 18) [109].
铜周报：关注重要宏观事件进展-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-26 12:38