螺纹钢周报：成本驱动明显，钢价延续强势-20250726

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply - side: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - Demand - side: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - Imports and Exports: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - Profit: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - Basis: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - Price and Basis: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Spreads: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - Prices and Ratios: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - Weekly Output: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - Capacity Utilization: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - Pig Iron Output: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - Regional Output: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - Building Material Transactions: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - Rebar Consumption: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - Related Prices: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - Total and Social Inventory: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - Regional Inventory: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].