原油周报：拐点将至-20250726

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventory in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will lead to a seasonal decline in demand, limiting the upside potential of crude oil. Given the limited upside potential and window period, a short-term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is set. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to make left-side bets on the geopolitical expectations of Russia in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when the oil price drops significantly [14]. - In the medium term, the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and it is more important to grasp the driving rhythm [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: With the improvement of China's macro - situation, INE crude oil has significantly re - evaluated compared with international oil prices this week. Affected by Venezuela's return, crude oil prices briefly declined, and the current oil price remains in the previous oscillation range [14]. - Supply and Demand Changes: OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The overall OPEC has begun to fully implement the maximum production increase. The US supply shows price elasticity and maintains dynamic production cuts when oil prices are weak. Iran is expected to return to the global supply, but Russia's shipments are still tight, with the planned port loading volume in August reduced to 1.77 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [14]. - Macro - Politics: In the macro - aspect, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, better than expected. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, and Trump said that Japan would invest $550 billion in the US. Politically, Iran started post - war negotiations, but no clear announcement has been given to the market [14]. - Short - term Impact Factors: The US policy has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on oil prices; geopolitical factors are neutral to positive [15]. - Medium - term Impact Factors: Global supply and demand and macro - politics are generally neutral to negative, and oil prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [19]. 2. Macro & Geopolitics - Short - term High - Frequency Indicators: Various macro - indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship with WTI oil prices [36]. - Medium - term Forecast Indicators: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption are analyzed [39]. - Geopolitical Indicators: Important geopolitical events include the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, Libya's plan to increase production, the supply disruption in Iraq's Kurdish region, Venezuela's resumption of production, and Iran's negotiations with E3 [42][43]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 spreads of WTI and Brent crude oils are presented [47]. - Inter - regional Spreads: The spreads of INE/Brent, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai are analyzed [50][55]. - Product Spreads: The forward curves of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oils, as well as the spreads of RB/HO and LGO/RB are shown [57][61]. - Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented [65][68][71]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - Supply: OPEC & OPEC+ - OPEC Meeting Results: OPEC and OPEC + have a series of production adjustment decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and production increases [77]. - Supply Situation: Various data charts show the production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected production outages of OPEC and OPEC + countries [79][84][88]. - Supply: US - No detailed content is provided in the given text after the "Supply: US" section.