氧化铝周报：商品做多情绪回落，供应过剩短期仍难逆转-20250726

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side contraction policies need further observation. Given the low proportion of backward alumina production capacity and new production expected this year, the overcapacity situation may persist [12][13]. - Short-term commodity buying sentiment is subsiding, and the shortage of tradable spot goods is expected to ease. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply-side policies, and Guinean ore policies [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Futures Prices: As of the night session on July 25, the alumina index rose 3.25% to 3245 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 16,000 lots to 409,000 lots. Policy expectations drove up prices earlier in the week, but prices fell on Friday due to a return to fundamental logic. The Shandong spot price was 3195 yuan/ton, at a discount of 53 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated, closing at 1 yuan/ton on Friday night [11][24] - Spot Prices: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively, driven by policy and tight spot supply [11][21] - Inventory: Alumina social inventory increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 2,100 tons to 9,000 tons. The registration volume of warehouse receipts rebounded slightly but remained at a historical low [11][69][71] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Prices: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly, driven by policy and tight spot supply [21] - Futures Prices and Basis: The alumina index rose earlier in the week and fell on Friday. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated [24] - Bauxite Prices: Bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. Imported ore prices were under pressure due to high arrivals and rising port inventories [27] 3. Supply Side - Bauxite: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.19 million tons, and imports were 18.12 million tons. Imports from Guinea are expected to decline after June, but the annual supply will remain in surplus. The regulatory announcements in Guinea have caused market uncertainty [31][33][35] - Alumina Production: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.33 million tons. This week, domestic alumina production reached a new high of 181,200 tons [41][44] - Alumina Factory Profits: Alumina factory profits improved with the rebound in spot prices. Profits varied by region and raw material source [47] - Alumina Imports and Exports: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 69,700 tons. The import window opened slightly, and small net exports are expected to become the norm [49] - Overseas Alumina Production: In June 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.11 million tons [53] 4. Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.65 million tons [58] - Electrolytic Aluminum Start-up: In June 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.03 million tons, and the start-up rate decreased slightly [61] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina balance sheet shows the supply - demand situation from January to August 2025 and the expected situation for July and August [64] 6. Inventory - Alumina Social Inventory: It increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week [69] - SHFE Alumina Inventory: Warehouse receipts increased, but the registration volume remained low. The inventory in delivery warehouses increased [71]