Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, reconstructing the original oversupply logic, and significantly increasing the valuation of each contract on the futures market, especially for the far - end contracts [12][14] - For near - end contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight reduction to relieve pressure in advance and considering the possibility of active weight gain due to a large fat - standard price difference, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter decreases, and the monthly spread may move towards a positive spread structure [12][14] - For far - end contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for now, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [12][14] - The industrial structure is being reconstructed, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases, and more attention should be paid to monthly spread opportunities [12][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, the spot pig price continued to decline. Due to enterprises reducing weight, the slaughter volume remained high, the weight mainly decreased, the demand was average, and the price trend was weak. The fat - standard price difference decreased month - on - month but was higher year - on - year. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.26 yuan to 14.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.16 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong increased by 0.08 yuan to 15.58 yuan/kg. Affected by policies, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, but the supply may narrow near the end of the month. With the decline in pig prices, low prices may attract second - round fattening. It is expected that the pig price will first decline and then slightly increase next week [12][23] - Supply Side: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. Since last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, which may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the current expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure. In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [12] - Demand Side: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [12][60] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation for now. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and the core driving logic including policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - standard price difference [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: The spot price continued to decline last week, with different price changes in different regions. It is expected to first decline and then slightly increase next week. Although the current trend is weak, there is still an expectation of a price increase in August [23][26] - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [26] - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [28] - Prices of Back - up and Culled Sows: Relevant price and ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [30] 3.3 Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. The policy - forced capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the implementation of policies in the next few months needs attention [35] - Inventory and Slaughter: Relevant inventory and slaughter volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [37] - Sow Culling and Sales: Relevant culling and sales volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [40] - Theoretical Slaughter Volume: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure [44] - Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs gradually increases as the weight increases [47] - Trading and Average Carcass Weight: In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [51] - Import and Pig Feed Ratio: Relevant import volume and feed ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [53] - Second - Round Fattening and Barn Utilization: Relevant ratio and utilization rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [55] 3.4 Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [60] - Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin: Relevant rate and margin trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [62] - Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: Relevant spread and price - volume relationship trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [64] - Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: Relevant spread and sales rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [66] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost bottomed out and then slightly rebounded, remaining relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of low costs, although the pig price is weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [71] 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [76]
生猪周报：关注月差波动-20250726
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-26 13:08