不锈钢周报：镍铁回升支撑价格，社库去化节奏加快-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The downstream demand and traders' purchasing activities have effectively consumed inventory. Coupled with some steel mills' maintenance and production cuts leading to reduced market arrivals, the national stainless - steel social inventory continued to decline this week. However, the current social inventory level remains high, and the market supply - demand maintains a weak balance. In the spot market, the inventory digestion of Qingxi agents has significantly accelerated, and the inventory pressure has been relieved, but it is mainly speculative restocking by traders. On the raw material side, the nickel - iron price has risen slightly, the market inquiry is active, and the inventory is continuously digested, providing cost support for the stainless - steel price. At the macro level, the warming market sentiment has driven up the overall commodity valuation. It is expected that next week's market will still be mainly driven by sentiment. Driven by the price - increase expectation, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is expected to increase, thereby accelerating the social inventory digestion and promoting market circulation. Overall, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: On July 25, the average price of Wuxi stainless - steel cold - rolled coils was 12,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.67%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.40%. In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. In July, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. From January to June 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was +14.4%. This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1186 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,400 tons, a decrease of 245 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 202,100 tons, 669,900 tons, and 246,500 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week. This week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 51,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.11%, and the unloading volume was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.55%. This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel compared with last week, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Price Changes: On July 25, the average price of Wuxi stainless - steel cold - rolled coils was 12,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.67%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.40% [11][17]. - Market Premium and Position: The market quotation of Foshan Delong and Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 330 yuan compared with the main contract. The disk position was 235,594 lots, a week - on - week increase of 22.64% [20]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 2 was reported at - 30 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 3 was reported at - 55 (+15) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - Domestic Production: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. In July, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11][27][30]. - Indonesian Production and Imports: In June, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - Export Situation: In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to June 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - Household Appliances and Fuel Processing: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was +14.4% [43]. - Elevators and Automobiles: In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, the automobile sales volume was 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - Total and Futures Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1186 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,400 tons, a decrease of 245 tons compared with last week [50]. - Inventory by Series and Arrival Volume: This week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 202,100 tons, 669,900 tons, and 246,500 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week. This week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 51,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.11%, and the unloading volume was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.55% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - Nickel Ore: In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.8787 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.17% [57]. - Nickel - Iron: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel compared with last week, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome: This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 54.5 yuan/dry ton, compared with 0 yuan/dry ton last week. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,800 yuan/50 - base tons, compared with 0 yuan/50 - base tons last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Production Margin: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of - 6.02%. As the downstream consumption sentiment warms up, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].