铁矿石周报：情绪极致演绎，注意短期调整-20250726

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].