债市调整中信用利差走高，3-5年二永债调整幅度更大

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].