新季套袋数量减少，盘面偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The new - season early - maturing apple supply is tight, and the price is 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per jin higher than last year [1]. - Currently in the traditional apple consumption off - season, the demand is average. The export volume in June 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new - season apple bagging is completed, with a slightly lower bagging volume than last year. The production in Shaanxi increased slightly, while that in Gansu and Shandong decreased [2]. - In the future, the futures market logic will shift from the old - season apple demand to the new - season apple production and acquisition. The apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the weak downstream demand in the short - term may limit the upside space. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, the apple futures market fluctuated upward, showing a strong trend. The low inventory and high early - maturing apple prices supported the market [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis - Cold storage inventory: As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than last year. Shandong had about 395,600 tons, Shaanxi about 173,400 tons, and non - main producing areas about 79,100 tons. Some storage merchants were eager to sell to lock in profits [1]. - Consumption off - season and inventory removal: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 4.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.12 percentage points. The inventory removal rate was 92.28%. Shandong's cold storage shipping speed slowed down, while Shaanxi's was relatively stable. The overall demand in the first half of the year may be lower than last year, and there may be a possibility of price cuts to remove inventory [2][18]. - Apple imports from January to June: In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 18,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 69,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. It is expected that the import volume will remain at a relatively high level [20][21]. - Apple exports in the second quarter: In June 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 37,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The export volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, and it is likely to remain at a low level [24]. - Impact of seasonal fruits on downstream demand: In July 2025, fruit prices continued to decline. Seasonal fruits such as bananas, watermelons, etc., affected the apple market. It is expected that the demand will gradually recover after the new - season apples are launched [29]. - Stable origin prices: As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods in Shandong was 3.96 yuan per jin, slightly lower than last week but higher than the same period last year. The storage profit in Qixia was 0.35 yuan per jin, and the profit margin may be compressed in the future [33]. - Seasonal analysis of apple consumption: Based on five - year historical prices, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [37][38]. - Slightly reduced bagging volume of new - season apples: In 2025, the new - season apple bagging volume was slightly lower than last year. Shaanxi increased production slightly, while Shandong and Gansu decreased. The overall bagging volume decreased by 2.03% compared to the previous season. The acquisition price of new - season late - maturing Red Fuji may be higher than last year [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply side includes the old - season apple inventory and early - maturing apples. The demand is in the off - season. The futures market logic will shift, and the apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the short - term upside space may be limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [42][44].