棉花月报：期现均有退意，郑棉阶段性高点或现-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, due to the commodity price increase caused by anti - involution, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Futures long - positions are shifting, and the confrontation between long and short positions in the main contract has eased. However, inland losses are severe, the consumption rate of commercial inventory has slowed down, and finished - product inventory is accumulating. In August, the cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends. - In the international market, the global cotton market remains under pressure as the USDA July report increased global supply. The excellent - good rate of U.S. cotton in the main producing areas is rising, and U.S. cotton exports are significantly affected. U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [1][26][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton first broke through and then fluctuated at a high level. Supported by tight supply and delayed issuance of import quotas, bulls actively attacked, pushing the price above 14,000 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 14,375 yuan/ton. Subsequently, bulls reduced positions, the basis was adjusted downwards, and the market entered a high - level oscillation. - In July, the international cotton market fluctuated widely. Uncertainty about trade agreements, high excellent - good rates of U.S. cotton, and weak exports suppressed cotton prices, but the low - level dollar and interest - rate cut expectations limited the downside space [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Commercial Inventory Consumption Slowdown - As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons (10.16%) from the end of June. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 242,000 tons, the inland inventory decreased by 36,400 tons, and the bonded inventory of imported cotton decreased by 9,000 tons. The decline in inventory continued to slow down, mainly due to significant losses of inland textile enterprises, reduced operating rates, and a significant contraction in cotton consumption [6]. 2.2 Decline in Downstream Operating Rates and Accumulation of Finished - Product Inventory - As of July 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises dropped from 51.2% at the end of June to 48.3%, and that of weaving enterprises dropped from 45.3% to 44.3%, reaching the lowest level in five years. The number of inland enterprises shutting down or suspending production increased. - By July 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased by 3.5 days compared to the end of June, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.8 days. After the increase in raw material prices, the acceptance of price increases for yarn and grey cloth by downstream sectors was low, leading to continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory [9][11]. 2.3 Both Spot and Futures Show Signs of Retreat - On July 16, Zhengzhou cotton started to rise rapidly, accompanied by an increase in positions and trading volume. It reached a phased high of 14,375 yuan/ton on July 18. During the futures price increase, the basis in eastern Xinjiang and inland warehouses did not rise but decreased, indicating a strong willingness of the spot market to sell. - After July 18, the futures market entered a high - level oscillation, the positions of the 2509 contract continued to decline, and long - position holders in the main contract showed a willingness to leave [14]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Increase in Global Supply and Ending Inventory - The USDA July cotton supply - demand report showed increases in both supply and demand. Global production increased by 1.43 million bales, mainly due to increases in China, the U.S., and Mexico. Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales. The beginning inventory for the 2025/26 season decreased by 510,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 bales [18]. 3.2 Higher - than - Expected Planting Area and Rising Excellent - Good Rate - The USDA reported that the actual planted area of U.S. cotton in the new season was 10.12 million acres, a 10% decrease compared to 2024. The growth in the actual planted area compared to the March assessment was mainly due to an increase in the planted area of upland cotton in Texas. - As of July 20, the squaring rate of U.S. cotton was 71%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the excellent - good rate was 57%. The growth progress was behind the same period last year, but the excellent - good rate continued to rise [21]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors: Trade Negotiations and Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The change in U.S. tariff policies is still unclear, which may affect the import strategies of major textile and clothing exporting countries for U.S. cotton. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the U.S. in July was extremely low, but the expectation of a future interest - rate cut increased, and the trend of the dollar index will also affect cotton prices [25]. 4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The domestic cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends in August, and attention should be paid to changes in positions on the futures market. - The international cotton market remains under pressure, and U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [26][27].