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“反内卷”持续加码,铜冶炼板块或将受益
Minsheng Securities·2025-07-27 01:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals industry [8][13]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced plans to release new growth stabilization work plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, aiming to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [5]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to strengthen the execution of policies, leading to the accelerated exit of inefficient copper smelting capacity, thereby improving the oversupply situation in copper smelting [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, China's copper smelting capacity is projected to reach 10.99 million tons for crude smelting and 14.57 million tons for refined smelting, with year-on-year increases of 0.66 million tons and 1.27 million tons, respectively [10]. - The national electrolytic copper production in the first half of 2025 reached 6.593 million tons, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase [10]. Market Dynamics - The copper concentrate processing fees have turned negative, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of July 25, 2025, the spot processing fee for copper concentrate was -42.75 USD/ton, a decrease of 51.9 USD/ton year-on-year [11]. - The smelting profit for copper concentrate was reported at -2561 RMB/ton for spot and 228 RMB/ton for long-term contracts, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 579 RMB/ton and 1423 RMB/ton, respectively [11][20]. Policy Implications - The MIIT's implementation plan for high-quality development in the copper industry emphasizes orderly development in copper smelting, requiring new projects to match a corresponding ratio of copper concentrate capacity [12]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to facilitate the exit of outdated smelting capacity, which will help improve the overall profitability of the copper industry [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with leading copper production, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as smelting companies with capacity and cost advantages like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [13].