甲醇产业链周报：商品气氛偏强，带动甲醇上涨-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recent improvement in commodity sentiment, driven by news such as the elimination of outdated production capacity, has led to a rebound in methanol and olefin prices. However, methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking a basis for significant price increases. [3][84] - The fundamentals of methanol have not changed significantly. The supply pressure remains high as high profits stimulate upstream production, while downstream demand growth is weak. In the long term, methanol is expected to be weak overall. After the market sentiment fades, it is predicted to enter a weakly volatile pattern, and investors are advised to beware of callback risks. [3][84] - Unilateral strategy: Beware of callback risks. Hedge strategy: Wait and see. [4][85] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late August was 09 + 25 yuan/ton. [8] 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 25 yuan/ton. [16] - Methanol's coastal basis fluctuated this week, while the inland basis also oscillated. The prices in the inland market and the northwestern region fluctuated this week. [23][33] - The price spread between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly. [41] - It is recommended to temporarily wait and see regarding price spreads. [49] - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale hold. [55] 3. Industry Chain Profits - Many new methanol production units were under maintenance, causing the methanol operating rate to decline slightly. [61] - Many methanol maintenance units resumed production, leading to an increase in methanol production. [65] - The operating rate of dimethyl ether declined oscillatingly, the formaldehyde operating rate fluctuated, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level. [72] - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins units oscillated, and MTO profits rebounded significantly. [75] - This week, methanol inventories at ports and upstream slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory accumulation speed. [80] 4. Market Outlook - The improvement in commodity sentiment has driven the rebound of methanol and olefin prices. However, methanol lacks the basis for a significant price increase. In the long term, it is expected to be weak overall and enter a weakly volatile pattern after the sentiment fades. Unilateral strategy: Beware of callback risks. Hedge strategy: Wait and see. [3][84][85]