中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报-20250727

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly decreased, and next week, due to many maintenance devices, especially Xinjiang Zhongtai's maintenance, production is expected to drop to around 443,200 tons. Domestic apparent demand growth rate in July is expected to be -2%, and the actual growth rate may be even lower. This week, there was a stockpile of 5,600 tons, and if domestic demand remains weak, there may be continued stockpiling. PVC prices rebounded significantly this week, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali improved significantly. Upstream开工率 is stable, and although the profit of some devices has improved significantly, there is no action to increase the load yet. Downstream开工率 is still weak, and the overall domestic demand is not strong [6][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda increased slightly due to the resumption of many maintenance devices, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The export volume of caustic soda in June was 291,000 tons, less than expected, and the export is estimated to be around 46,000 tons. This week, the national inventory of caustic soda slightly increased, and if the apparent demand remains the same next week, there may be continued stockpiling. The price of caustic soda weakened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong improved significantly. The basis of caustic soda weakened significantly, and upstream manufacturers began hedging [104][107]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PVC 1. Spot Market - This week, PVC production was 451,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from last week. The import volume remained at 15,000 tons per week, and the export volume was 57,500 tons per week. The apparent demand was 403,500 tons, less than the expected value of 429,200 tons. The total inventory was 784,100 tons, a stockpile of 5,600 tons [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC weakened significantly this week. For example, the basis of East China calcium carbide method on July 25 was -193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated and strengthened [9][19]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali improved significantly this week. The production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi decreased from -432 yuan/ton last week to -482 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest integrated PVC increased from -454 yuan/ton last week to -234 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 220 yuan/ton [9]. 4. Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to drop to around 443,200 tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 413,000 tons. If domestic demand remains weak, there may be continued stockpiling [6]. Caustic Soda 1. Spot Market - This week, the production of caustic soda was 823,500 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last week. The import volume remained at 200 tons per week, and the export volume was 46,000 tons per week. The apparent demand was around 766,400 tons, and next week, it is estimated to be around 775,000 tons. The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) was 227,300 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons [104]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened significantly this week. For example, the basis of 32% caustic soda for the 01 contract on July 25 was -139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 219 yuan/ton from last week. The 1 - 5 spread was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from last week [107]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong improved significantly this week. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali increased from -231 yuan/ton last week to 113 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 344 yuan/ton. The export profit of caustic soda increased [107]. 4. Market Expectation - Next week, the production of caustic soda is expected to continue to increase, and if the apparent demand remains the same, there may be continued stockpiling [104].