6月财政有喜有忧，下半年呢？

Revenue Insights - In the first half of 2025, general fiscal revenue totaled 11.56 trillion, down 0.3% year-on-year, with June revenue at 1.89 trillion, also down 0.31% year-on-year[1][2] - Government fund revenue in June was 395.9 billion, a significant increase of 20.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by land transfer income[9][10] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure in the first half reached 14.13 trillion, up 3.4% year-on-year, with June expenditure at 2.83 trillion, a mere 0.38% increase year-on-year[1][2] - Central fiscal expenditure grew by 9% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local expenditure growth of 2.6%[2][8] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, suggesting a potential slowdown to around 4.7% in the second half, still maintaining a target of "around 5%"[4][5] - New policies are expected from the Political Bureau by the end of July, but strong stimulus measures are unlikely, with a focus on gradual support[4][5] Fiscal Policy Considerations - The fiscal policy approach is expected to be a "two-step" process, focusing first on the implementation of existing policies and then adjusting based on economic conditions[5][6] - Key areas of focus include the pace of government bond issuance and the actual progress of physical work projects[5][6]