Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-27 07:16Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]