Report Overview - Report Date: July 27, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Lithium Carbonate Market Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose rapidly with significant pullbacks. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, up 10,560 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton, up 10,540 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 6,250 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton [1]. - There are large differences in the market's expectations for the reduction and suspension of production at key mines. The market is divided on whether mining license expansion affects production during the renewal period, and whether the impact is short - term or long - term. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations [4]. - The supply and demand fundamentals show that the lithium concentrate price increased by $99/ton to $810/ton, a 14% week - on - week increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream and trader inventory increasing. The downstream's purchasing willingness at high prices was weak, and the overall growth rate of new energy vehicle sales was lower than expected [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Trends - Futures and Spot Prices: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, up 10,560 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton, up 10,540 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose by 6,250 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2509 contract) weakened by 4,310 yuan/ton to - 7,620 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was - 250 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 1,360 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - Lithium Industry Chain Prices: In the lithium industry chain, prices of various products such as lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide all showed different degrees of increase. For example, lithium concentrate (6%, CIF) rose to $810/ton, a 13.92% increase [14]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: The price of lithium concentrate increased by $99/ton to $810/ton, a 14% week - on - week increase. The profit of external lithium ore purchase for futures hedging expanded to 5,470 yuan/ton. There are differences in the market regarding the impact of anti - involution policies on production. Some mines may face production reduction or suspension, and this week's lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a decrease of 485 tons from last week, mainly due to production cuts by salt lake enterprises [2]. - Demand: At current high prices, downstream purchasing willingness was weak, and market transactions decreased significantly. The basis of lithium carbonate dropped from +90 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton. The inventory of downstream cathode materials remained stable. This week, new energy passenger vehicle sales were 214,000 units, a 4.9% week - on - week increase, a 10.88% year - on - year increase, and a penetration rate of 55.15%, but the overall growth rate was lower than market expectations [2]. 3.3 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream and trader inventory increasing. The lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 550 - ton increase from last week, a 0.39% increase. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Market Outlook: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the market is expected to experience wide fluctuations. The market has different views on the production reduction and suspension of key mines, and there are also differences in the expected impact period [4]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Hold positions cautiously. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 65,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Inter - delivery Spread Trading: Arbitrage is not recommended. There is an expectation of mine production suspension in the near - term, which is suitable for positive spreads, but the increasing number of warehouse receipts is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. - Hedging: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging. For enterprises purchasing external ores, it is recommended to lock in profits through the futures market, and the sell - hedging ratio is recommended to be increased to 80%. Lithium salt enterprises are recommended to price and sell goods instead of conducting sell - hedging on the futures market [8].
碳酸锂：反内卷对产量影响的分歧较大，宽幅波动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-27 07:27