镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性，不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and News Factors: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - Real - world Situation: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Macro and Real - world Logic: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - Supply - demand Situation: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - Refined Nickel Inventory: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - Ferronickel Inventory: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - Nickel Ore Inventory: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - Trade - related News: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - Project - related News: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - Environmental - related News: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - Policy - related News: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - Production - related News: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - Futures Data: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].