棕榈油：宏观情绪消退，基本面或有回踩，豆油：缺乏有效驱动，关注中美谈判结果

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: The current price of palm oil is pushed to a three - year high by positive domestic macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals may not support this high price. There is a chance of a price correction if inventory builds up more than expected in August - September, along with other negative factors. However, if the inventory fails to break through 230 million tons and the supply pressure in July - August does not form effective price pressure, the market may have digested the inventory high, and there may be limited major supply - side negatives later. It is advisable to continuously monitor opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: The domestic soybean oil market is in a situation of weak current reality but strong expectations. Its driving factors currently lie in the weather of US soybeans, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. It is recommended to follow the trend of the oil and fat sector for now and pay attention to the Sino - US trade results next week to see if a procurement agreement can be reached [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm Oil: Positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lacked strong drivers. Without strong supply themes, the high price needed strong downstream demand. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.31% last week [1]. - Soybean Oil: As the Sino - US trade negotiation approached, the tense sentiment in the soybean sector rose, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil to some extent, but still could not provide a strong driving force for the price to rise. The soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.20% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic - Palm Oil: After the bearish news of the slight increase in June inventory in the MPOB report was digested, the price rebounded. The market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but conservatively, it will not exceed 220 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil is quite resistant to decline. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the recent price increase. The production recovery in Indonesia may fall short of expectations again. With the US biodiesel policy reducing the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, the international oil and fat market may see a systematic upward trend. In the sales area, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil, and the reconstruction of channel inventory is underway. If the monthly import volume can be maintained above 80 million tons, it will be difficult for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to exceed 230 million tons. The soybean - palm oil price difference is not expected to return to parity this year. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction if inventory builds up more than expected in August - September, as well as the potential for early de - stocking and bullish sentiment if production in July - August is lower than expected [2][3][4]. - Soybean Oil: The weather speculation of US soybeans is currently weak. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can potentially lead to a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean oil market is in a state of weak current situation but strong expectations. The recent increase in port soybean inventory, high - level crushing operations, and poor提货 have led to a rapid build - up of soybean oil inventory. The export of large orders of domestic soybean oil to India may narrow the domestic soybean - palm oil price difference to the international level. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is room for the spread and Brazilian premium to rise, which may benefit soybean oil. It is advisable to follow the oil and fat sector for now and wait for potential opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [5]. 3.3 Market Data - Futures Quotes: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,276 ringgit/ton, down 0.93%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 55.92 cents/pound, up 0.61% [8]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, with an increase of 597,494 lots; the open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 100,607 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 2,877,519 lots, an increase of 268,435 lots; the open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 53,546 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 153,613 lots; the open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 36,060 lots [8]. - Price Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,313 yuan/ton, down 7.92%; the soybean - palm 09 spread was - 792 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 8 yuan/ton, down 75.00%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 4.76%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 56 yuan/ton, down 27.27% [8]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 854 lots compared to last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 21,495 lots, a decrease of 623 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, unchanged from last week [8].