国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）月报：盘整蓄势，未来可期-20250727

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE inventory: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - Electrolytic nickel price: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - Nickel sulfate price: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - Nickel iron import volume and price: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Stainless steel price and position: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - Stainless steel inventory: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - Power and energy - storage battery production: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - New - energy vehicle production: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].