能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250727

Report Information - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 27, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin; Contact: Qian Jiayin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Short fiber: Supported by cost, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium term [7] - Bottle chip: Supported by cost, it will fluctuate in the short term, with a tight balance in July - August and restocking after September [8][94] Summary by Section Short Fiber (PF) Supply - Factory new production cuts are few. The average weekly factory operating rate is 90.6%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple operating rate is 94.7%, expected to remain or slightly increase [7] Demand - Terminal weaving starts to bottom out, but yarn is still reducing load due to high inventory. External demand orders will be reflected in mid - to late August. Short fiber inventory is healthy, with 1.4D equity inventory at 9.8 days and physical inventory at 21.7 days this week [7] View - Supported by cost, it fluctuates strongly in the short term. The demand side bottoms out and fluctuates at a low level in the short term. The most difficult seasonal time may have passed [7] Valuation - The current spot processing fee is 1,000 - 1,050 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract processing fee is compressed to 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with a slightly high - neutral valuation [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Roll long in the short - term range, with pressure in the long - term; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: Take profit on long PR and short PF positions at high levels [7] Bottle Chip (PR) Supply - Leading factories' production cuts have been implemented, with a low possibility of further cuts. The current operating rate is 79%. If the processing fee recovers, restarts may be advanced [8] Demand - Domestic downstream demand remains high, and downstream restocks on dips. After the production cuts, bottle chips are expected to have a slight destocking pattern in July - August [8] View - Supported by cost, it fluctuates in the short term. The destocking expectation in July - August is considerable, and the processing fee still has room to expand, but there is pressure in the long term [8] Valuation - The current processing fee is 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is neutral - low and expected to rise slowly [8] Strategy - Unilateral: Roll long in the short - term range, and short at high levels in the long - term; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: Take profit on long PR and short PF positions at high levels [8] Other Aspects - "Anti - involution" impact: It may increase costs, but has little impact on supply [11] - Sea freight: It has decreased, and the impact on exports in June - July has weakened [16] - Base and spread: The basis and inter - month spread have weakened as the futures price rises faster than the spot price [21][99] - Price and spread: The price has risen this week, and the FOB price is 800 - 815 US dollars/ton. The substitution spread shows different trends [24][27] - Production and operation rate: The effective production capacity has reached 2,168 million tons, and the current operating rate has dropped to 79.7% [32] - Raw material operation: PTA has slightly increased inventory, and MEG has seen changes in load and inventory [43][44] - Cost and profit: The polymerization cost has risen, the processing fee has stabilized, and the export profit has weakened [48] - Inventory: Factory inventory has remained flat this week, and destocking is expected after production cuts [53] - Device changes: Production cuts have been implemented as planned, and no future major device overhauls are expected [59][60] - Demand - Downstream load remains high, with beverage, edible oil, and sheet material industries showing different operating rates [63] - 2025 Q1 - Q2 beverage consumption was weak year - on - year, but there are new production lines to be put into operation [69][70] - Edible oil demand is neutral, and sheet material demand is average, with improved supermarket consumption [72][75] - Global trade flow: Overseas demand increasingly depends on imports, and China's main export flows are to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and other regions [79] - Export situation: In June 2025, the export volume was 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. There are short - term disturbances but a strong long - term trend [82] - Anti - dumping policy: Multiple countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips [93] - Supply - demand balance: A tight balance in July - August and restocking after September, with assumptions about supply and demand [94][95]