能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250727

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the macro - level positive factors have limited impact on the spot market, and the paper price is weak. In the future, due to the increase in market supply pressure and the weakening of market support, the price of offset printing paper is expected to decline, and the paper mill's profit will be adjusted [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic offset printing paper this Thursday decreased by 2.14% compared to last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.22 percentage points week - on - week. The overall inventory reduction rhythm of the market slowed down [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic offset printing paper this week was 50.13%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.94 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On July 25, the average price of 70g high - white offset printing paper was 5012.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 62.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - week decrease of 87.5 yuan/ton [9]. - The prices of various types of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets generally decreased, and the pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Supply - In 2024, the domestic offset printing paper industry's production capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%; the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry's output was 168,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1% [24]. - In June, the domestic offset printing paper import volume was about 15,000 tons [37]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the domestic offset printing paper sales volume was 176,100 tons [29]. - In June, the domestic offset printing paper export volume was about 66,000 tons [37]. - In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, the enterprise inventory of domestic offset printing paper was 351,300 tons [29]. - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [43]. 3.4 Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production is stable, and the import volume remains low. With the increase in the operating rate of new production capacity in South China, the market supply pressure will increase [51]. - Demand: The demand for publication orders will decrease next week, the rigid demand support in the market will weaken, and the social demand is difficult to improve [51]. - Price: Due to the contradiction between supply and demand, there is still room for negotiation in the market transaction next week, and the paper price is expected to decline [51]. - Valuation: According to the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross profit of offset printing paper is about - 26 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit is about - 196 yuan/ton, and the paper mill's profit has been adjusted [51]. - Strategy: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].