Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead production is under pressure, and with the expectation of the consumption peak season, prices will be supported. The supply of primary lead is decreasing, and secondary lead is in continuous loss. As the consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises will rise. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge in the third quarter, supporting price recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - futures arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a decrease of - 0.65%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,037 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.27% [7] - Spread: LME lead basis increased by 0.78 dollars/ton compared to the previous week; Shanghai 1 lead spot basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton; the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton [7] - Inventory: Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 125 tons compared to the previous week, and the total inventory increased by 919 tons. Social inventory increased by 2,400 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [7] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai lead main contract increased by 14,475 lots compared to the previous week, and the position increased by 22,746 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 decreased by 4,557 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The spot import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, lower than last week's level, and the domestic concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/ton, at a historical low [6] - Primary Lead: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, a smelter in Jiangxi may slightly increase production, and a smelter in Inner Mongolia has resumed normal production, but the supply increase is limited [6] - Secondary Lead: The smelting profit of secondary lead is in large losses, with enterprises shutting down and resuming production coexisting, and the supply increase is restricted [6] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: At the end of the month, some battery enterprises are conducting inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, as the consumption peak season approaches in August, the consumption of lead - acid batteries may improve, and the operating rate is likely to rise, with enterprises increasing raw material inventory on dips [6] - End - Users: The actual consumption of lead shows certain trends, and the production of related end - user products such as automobiles and motorcycles also has corresponding fluctuations [53]
铅产业链周度报告-20250727