国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the weekly situation of the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price fluctuating at a relatively high level and the monthly spread tending to narrow. [16] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from the previous week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. [4] - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5] - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreased week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6] - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 10.0% week-on-week, and the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.3%. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreasing by 0.4% week-on-week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreasing by 0.9%. [6] Supply - As of July 20, 29 ships departed from New Zealand in July, with 26 bound for mainland China, 3 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July. [5][8] - Detailed information on the departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time of each ship is provided. [9] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of July 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 5,000 cubic meters). [6][13] - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2318 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 51,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 514,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 8,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 446,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 36,500 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 222,800 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4162 million cubic meters, an increase of 101,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week. [6][13] Market Trends - As of July 25, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week. The market showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply and demand pattern. [16] - This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread was -8 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread was -12.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread was -4.5 yuan per cubic meter. [16] Price and Spread - The prices of various log species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged from the previous week, with only a few showing slight changes. [20][22] - The report also analyzed the regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different log species and specifications, as well as the price differences between different tree species and specifications. [23][38] Other - As of the week of July 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,257 points, an increase of 205 points (10.0%) from the previous week, and its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 682 points, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,593 points, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous week. [53] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.154, a week-on-week decrease of 0.4%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by 0.9% to 1.662. [53]