国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].