能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operating Rate: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].