铜产业链周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper lacks a clear driving force, and its price fluctuates within the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Globally, the total copper inventory is decreasing, mainly due to a significant reduction in domestic social inventory. However, the domestic spot premium is falling, and the term structure continues to weaken. The approaching 50% tariff on copper in the US may lead to an increase in LME copper inventory and a weakening of the spot [8]. - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, but there is support at the bottom. Trump's tariff policy may affect the global economy, while the Fed's potential future interest rate cuts may support the US economy [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, downstream buyers are cautious. With Trump's impending tariff increase on copper, unilateral trading should be cautious. For spread trading, as domestic inventory decreases, the spot premium may strengthen in the future, and term positive spreads can be tentatively traded [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of copper in four markets has rebounded. The volatility of COMEX copper prices reaches around 33%, and that of SHFE copper prices is around 11% [12]. - Term Spread: The term B - structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount is weak. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [15][16]. - Position: The positions of SHFE copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all increased. The position of SHFE copper has increased by 11,200 lots to 510,600 lots [17]. - Fund and Industry Position: The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased. The net short position of LME commercial traders has decreased from 64,900 lots to 61,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased from 40,700 lots on July 15th to 39,800 lots on July 22nd [23]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded, the US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has declined, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable [27]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has decreased, with a significant reduction in social inventory. The bonded area inventory and COMEX inventory have increased, and the LME copper inventory has also increased [30][33]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, weakening the logic of overseas spot tightness. The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 08 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [34]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year - on - year. In June 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.3497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. The port inventory of copper concentrate has decreased, and the processing fee has marginally rebounded [37][40]. - Recycled Copper: The import of recycled copper has increased year - on - year, while the domestic production has decreased significantly. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper has weakened, and the import loss has expanded [41][46]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased. In June, the import was 68,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. The processing fee is at a low level [51]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and copper exports are at a loss. In June, the production was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%, and imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11% [54][55]. 3.3 Demand End - 开工率: In June, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a historically low level in the same period, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a relatively low - neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased in the week of July 24th [58]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods has rebounded but is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The processing fee of copper tubes has rebounded, while the processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened [61][63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In June, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has decreased. In June, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high - neutral level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a relatively low - neutral level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 7.8135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, and the apparent consumption was 7.822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Grid investment, home appliances, and the new energy industry are important supports for copper consumption. Grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 291.1 billion yuan from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 14.60% [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In June, the domestic air - conditioner production was 18.782 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.16%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.268 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [74].