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煤焦周度报告-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-27 07:50
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances. The notice from the Energy Bureau about coal mine inspections in eight major production areas has become a hot topic. However, according to third - party information providers, over - production in major coal - producing provinces is relatively rare, with only Xinjiang having over - production in June. Policy announcements and the strengthening of market confidence through frequent briefings have also contributed. From a fundamental supply - demand perspective, domestic coking coal production has recovered slowly after the coal mine safety production month in June, and downstream and traders have started to stockpile, driving up prices. Short - term price factors need to consider policy news, futures - spot behavior, and fundamental disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - There are expectations of supply contraction. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that had reduced production have resumed, but some in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen areas have further reduced supply due to various reasons, leading to a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 22,700 tons week - on - week to 12,256,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [3][5]. 3.2 Demand - Stimulated by policies, the black - series futures have risen continuously, boosting the sentiment in the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, resulting in a supply shortage [5]. 3.3 Inventory - The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom is smooth. Downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, and coal mines have received a large number of orders. Some coal enterprises' pre - sales orders are scheduled until the end of August. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline significantly. Although downstream coking enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, due to the hot raw material trading, some are still having difficulty increasing their inventories. The raw coal inventory of sample coking enterprises increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [5]. 3.4 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.623 billion (- 42.6 million); FW clean coal 4.4097 billion (- 14.7 million) | Independent coking plants' daily average 646,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 472,000 tons (+ 10,000 tons) | | Demand | Hot metal production 2.4223 billion (- 2.1 million) | Hot metal production 2.4223 billion (- 2.1 million) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 734 million; Mines - 993 million; Independent coking + 563 million; Steel mills' coking + 84 million; Ports - 290 million; Ports of entry - 36 million | MS total inventory - 88 million; Independent coking - 74 million; Steel mills + 10 million | | Profit | Commodity coal 353 yuan/ton (+ 27 yuan/ton) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 70 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1,277 yuan/ton; Mongolian No. 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,175 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,579 yuan/ton | [7] 3.5 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: For the coking coal 2509 contract on July 25, 2025, the closing price was 1,259 yuan/ton, with a change of 60.5 yuan. The trading volume was 189,213 lots, and the open interest was 305,000 lots. For the coking coal 2601 contract, the closing price was 1,318.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 54 yuan. The trading volume was 853,023 lots, and the open interest was 338,259 lots [58]. - Coke Futures: For the coke 2509 contract on July 25, 2025, the closing price was 1,763 yuan/ton, with a change of 28 yuan. The trading volume was 65,730 lots, and the open interest was 37,395 lots. For the coke 2601 contract, the closing price was 1,811 yuan/ton, with a change of 25.5 yuan. The trading volume was 13,061 lots, and the open interest was 15,975 lots [61]. - Coal - Coke Monthly Spread: The spread between JM2509 and JM2601 ranges from - 100 to 0 yuan/ton; the spread between J2509 and J2601 ranges from - 60 to 0 yuan/ton [64]. - Coal - Coke Spot: Different types of coking coal and coke have different spot prices in various regions [67][68]. - Coal - Coke Basis: On July 25, the basis of coking coal 2509 - warehouse receipt was - 84 yuan/ton; the basis of coke 2509 - warehouse receipt was - 184 yuan/ton [72].