能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250727

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 27, 2025 - Author: Chen Xinchao from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LPG: This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. The supply slightly contracted, but the seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation. The price of etherified C4 first fell and then rose. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production is likely to receive some short - term boost [3]. - Propylene: This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased slightly, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The market price first rose and then fell. The supply - demand gap widened, and the price was under pressure [4]. Summary by Sections LPG Section Price & Spread - Futures and Paper Goods Prices: The prices of LPG futures and paper goods showed certain fluctuations. The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly at the end of the week, with FEI propane in a deep discount state [7][17]. - Domestic Spot and Basis: The prices of domestic civil LPG and other LPG products in different regions had varying degrees of changes. The basis also showed corresponding fluctuations [8]. - International Propane: The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly. The FEI propane was in a deep discount state, and the freight rates and arbitrage spaces also changed [17][18]. Supply - US Propane Shipment: The shipment of US propane to Japan, South Korea, and Europe increased, while the shipment to China decreased significantly [27]. - Middle - East LPG Shipment: Except for Kuwait, the LPG shipments from other Middle - East regions decreased this period. The shipment to China decreased, while the shipments to India and Southeast Asia increased [36][43]. - Imports and Domestic Production: The total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 tons, remaining unchanged from last week. The civil LPG commodity volume was 21.0 tons (-0.2%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.6 tons (+0.5%). The international propane arrival decreased by 16.7 tons [3][54]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical Demand: Chemical demand continued to recover slightly. The PDH operating rate increased slightly, and the MTBE operating rate continued to rise to 69.0%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - Inventory: The domestic refinery inventory of LPG showed different trends in different regions. The civil LPG refinery inventory increased slightly, and the LPG terminal inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in other regions decreased [77][81][91]. Propylene Section Price & Spread - Industrial Chain Prices: The prices of upstream and downstream products in the propylene industrial chain changed to varying degrees. The prices of some raw materials decreased, while the prices of some products increased or decreased slightly [102][103]. - International and Domestic Propylene Prices: International propylene prices decreased slightly, and domestic propylene prices in different regions also showed different trends. The prices in Shandong and East China increased, while the price in North China decreased [102][113][117]. Balance Sheet - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various production processes in the propylene industry increased slightly. The operating rates of downstream products such as PP powder and acrylic acid increased slightly, while the operating rates of PP pellets and PO changed little, and many butanol and phenol - acetone plants were under maintenance [4][120]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply of the domestic propylene market increased slightly this week, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The supply - demand gap widened [4].