本轮债市调整的特征、原因及后续空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amidst the strong performance of equities and commodities, the bond market adjustment intensified, and bond funds may have faced large - scale redemptions. The net selling of bonds by funds reached nearly 100 billion yuan per day [2][10]. - The current adjustment is characterized by a relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the market had been in a slow decline for nearly three weeks. From a quantity perspective, the net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, while wealth management maintained net buying [2][11][12]. - The main reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite and the marginal improvement of fundamental expectations. Concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude and the high pre - market congestion amplified market fluctuations [2][15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited, and the allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, especially 5Y CDB bonds and 30Y treasury bonds that have experienced significant recent adjustments. Trading portfolios should focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [2][18][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the tight money market, strong performance of the stock and commodity markets suppressed bond market sentiment, and redemption pressure increased. Yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively. The bond market adjusted due to factors such as the implementation of anti - involution policies, the start of hydropower projects, and changes in money market liquidity [9]. - The characteristics of the current adjustment include relatively small price decline and short - term duration, but the previous slow decline lasted nearly three weeks. The net selling of spot bonds by funds was large, and wealth management maintained net buying [11][12]. - The reasons for the adjustment are the increase in risk appetite, marginal improvement of fundamental expectations, concerns about the change in monetary policy attitude, and high pre - market congestion [15]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is relatively limited. The allocation value of interest - rate bonds is gradually emerging. It is recommended that allocation portfolios seize opportunities in the adjustment of interest - rate bonds, and trading portfolios focus on signals of relief in fund redemption pressure and the issuance of 50Y treasury bonds next week [18][21]. 3.2. Bond Market Review 3.2.1. Money Market: Net Central Bank Injection, Rising Money Market Rates - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 1095 billion yuan. Money market rates rose. R001 and DR001 rose by 6bp to 1.55% and 1.52% respectively. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate fluctuated, and the 1M national - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount price decreased by 15bp [25][26]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market Trends: Rising Yields - This week, bond yields rose. Except for the 3m treasury bond, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 7y - 5y, 10y - 7y, and 30 - 20y treasury bond term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of July 25, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds rose by 7bp and 8bp respectively to 1.73% and 1.97% [34]. 3.2.3. Bond Market Sentiment: Declining Bond Fund Duration, Continuing Decline in Inter - bank Leverage Ratio - This week, the median duration of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds continued to rise, the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread narrowed, and the 20Y - 30Y treasury bond spread slightly widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 122.9%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds widened [41]. 3.2.4. Bond Supply: Next Week's Continued Issuance of 50Y Special Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased compared to the previous week. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, while the net financing of local government bonds and policy - based financial bonds increased. This week, the issuance scale of treasury bonds increased, but the continuation issuance sentiment of 30Y treasury bonds was weak. Next week, the 50Y treasury bond will be continued for issuance. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the issuance rate dropped slightly to 1.61% [54][59]. 3.3. Economic Data: Rising Port Throughput, Slowing Industrial Production - In July, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. Since July, port throughput has increased, the freight rate index has weakened year - on - year, and industrial production has slowed down. In terms of real estate, new - home sales have improved, and second - hand home sales have shown mixed performance. In terms of consumption, automobile consumption has been stable, and movie consumption has marginally improved. In terms of exports, port throughput has increased, but the freight rate index has declined. Industrial production has slowed down, with some开工率 indicators decreasing [65]. 3.4. Overseas Bond Market: Narrowing of the 10Y Treasury Bond Yield Spread between China and the US - The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction. Overseas bond markets showed that the bond markets of China, Japan, and Germany declined, while most emerging markets rose. The 10Y treasury bond yield spread between China and the US narrowed by 11BP [73][74][77]. 3.5. Major Asset Classes: Strong Performance of Rebar and Stock Indexes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, and the Nanhua Rebar index strengthened, while the US dollar index weakened. This week, the performance of major asset classes was as follows: rebar > CSI 1000 > convertible bonds > live pigs > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese bonds > crude oil > US dollar [78]. 3.6. Policy Review - Multiple policies were introduced this week, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market, the public solicitation of opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, the strengthening of financial services for rural reform, and announcements related to the Hainan Free Trade Port's full - island customs closure, the Rural Highway Regulations, and the Housing Rental Regulations. The implementation effects of these policies need to be further observed [80][83][84]