国泰君安期货金银周报-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline in the short term, while the upside potential for silver is largely saturated. Gold is relatively weak, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 780 yuan/gram for gold and 8800 - 9400 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. - The core trading logic of gold in the first half of the year under the dimension of "uncertainty" has basically ended. The short - term inflation expectation, an important factor supporting the gold price, has also significantly declined. The US monthly economic data remains resilient, leading to the inevitable rebound of the US dollar and the decline of the gold price. However, there is strong capital support below the gold price after the decline [3]. - The rise of silver is mainly affected by liquidity and the recovery of macro - risk appetite. With the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the upside potential for silver is considered to be saturated, but it still shows a strong direction and a high - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Price Performance: This week, London gold fell by - 0.35%, and London silver rose by 1.22%. The gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.3, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.96%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.4% (2 - year at 3.91%), and the US dollar index was recorded at 97.6. Among various gold and silver varieties, there were different price changes, such as Comex gold 2510 falling by - 0.51% and Comex silver 2510 falling by - 0.26% [3][4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2510 increased by 64,411 hands, while its open interest decreased by 28,849 hands [4]. - Comex and ETF Position Changes: The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold and silver futures and options increased, and the positions of gold and silver ETFs also increased. For example, the non - commercial net long position of Comex gold futures and options increased by 41,524 hands, and the position of SPDR gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons [4]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of COMEX gold increased by 0.57 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.4%. The inventory of COMEX silver increased by 3.08 million ounces to 500.32 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 39.3%. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1401 tons, and the inventory of silver futures decreased by 23.82 tons to 1187 tons [35][37][39]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spread Changes: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [15][17]. - Domestic Inter - month Spread Changes: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][26]. - Domestic - Overseas Spread Changes: The spread of silver T + D to London silver converged to - 559, and the spread of gold T + D to London gold was 4.77 [4]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell by - 0.80%, and other exchange rates such as the euro against the US dollar rose by 0.99% [4]. 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.28 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 9.4 US dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 converged to - 0.188 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.285 US dollars/ounce [9][12]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.71 yuan/gram, and the silver spot - futures spread was - 20 yuan/gram [15][17]. - Inter - month Spreads: The gold inter - month spread was 6.9 yuan/gram, and the silver inter - month spread was 63 yuan/gram [21][26]. - Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver in different combinations, such as buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold December and selling June, etc. [29][30][31][32]. - Delivery Fee Payment Directions of Shanghai Gold Exchange: This week, the gold delivery fee at the gold exchange was mainly paid by the long side to the short side, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was mainly paid by the short side to the long side, indicating strong collection and delivery power [33]. - Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The inventory of COMEX gold increased, and the registered warrant ratio decreased. The inventory of COMEX silver increased, and the registered warrant ratio increased. The inventory of gold futures increased, and the inventory of silver futures decreased [35][37][39]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [41]. - ETF Positions: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 8.59 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 512.88 tons [44][46]. - Gold - to - Silver Ratio: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio dropped from 87.5 to 86.1 [48]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 3.43% [50]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [55]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report, but relevant data such as non - farm employment numbers, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and average working hours were presented [62][63][64][65][66]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [67]. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the summary part of the report [71]. - Fed Rate - cut Probability: The report presented the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different time points, such as a - 2.6% rate - cut probability for the US on 07/30/2025 [72].