能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the pulp market may follow the market trend and undergo a corrective adjustment. The supply side is under pressure with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The demand side faces cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp. The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may improve. It is expected that the pulp market will decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of July 24, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 57.6 tons, down 3.2 tons from the previous period, a 5% MoM decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 136.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from last week, a 1.0% MoM increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 8.1 tons, down 0.8 tons from last week, a 9.0% MoM decrease. The total inventory of China's major pulp ports was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% MoM decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.1% MoM decrease and a 23.3% YoY increase; the import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 143.5 tons, a 11.0% MoM increase and an 18.9% YoY increase; the import volume of softwood chips was 7.2 tons, a 234.9% MoM increase and a 125.9% YoY increase; the import volume of hardwood chips was 129.2 tons, a 0.2% MoM increase and a 1.3% YoY decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Data - Market Trends: On July 25, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 400 yuan/ton, a 36.31% MoM decrease and a 7.41% YoY decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 20 yuan/ton, a 350.00% MoM decrease and a 162.50% YoY decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 420 yuan/ton, a 32.26% MoM decrease and a 5.00% YoY increase [11]. - Basis and Spread: On July 25, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 193.75% MoM increase; the 11 - 01 spread was - 146 yuan/ton, a 19.78% MoM increase [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased by 2.75% MoM and increased by 86.32% YoY; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased by 12.50% MoM and 145.45% YoY. The import profit of silver star pulp increased by 2804% MoM and 11502% YoY; the import profit of star pulp increased by 277.35% MoM and 103.50% YoY [24][32]. - Supply: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both MoM and YoY; the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance, with the softwood pulp import volume decreasing by 6.07% MoM and the hardwood pulp import volume increasing by 10.96% MoM [47][50]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased slightly, while that of tissue paper increased slightly. The profits of white cardboard, tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased to varying degrees [55][65]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased, and the spot inventory of major ports decreased slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.65 tons, a 0.11% MoM decrease and a 50.50% YoY decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.92 tons, a 0.52% MoM decrease and a 40.25% YoY decrease [69]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply side pressure is solidified, with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The major port inventory decreased slightly this period [79]. - Demand: The demand side has cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp [79]. - View: The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak. The divergence between futures and spot prices may improve, and the pulp market may decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. - Valuation: The basis of silver star pulp in Shandong decreased by 64 yuan/ton [79]. - Strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for a single - sided trade; use a reverse spread strategy for the 9 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts [79].