国泰君安期货能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a correction, while the medium - term outlook is a sideways trend. Short - term, on Friday night, with a large amount of speculative capital leaving the market, the commodity index declined from its high, and methanol futures followed suit. Also, as the basis strengthens, it is expected that the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market will be released, bringing selling pressure to the supply side of the spot market. Medium - term, methanol is expected to move sideways. Firstly, the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities. Secondly, in terms of supply, domestic methanol maintenance has increased and July imports are low, so the domestic supply of methanol has shrunk in the short term, and port inventories have decreased more than expected due to slow unloading [2][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spreads - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the basis, monthly spreads, and number of warehouse receipts of methanol, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials over the years from 2020 - 2025 [7][12][16]. 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: From 2024 - 2025, there have been multiple new methanol plants in China, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8400000 tons in 2025. Internationally, the total capacity expansion was 3550000 tons in 2024 and is expected to be 3300000 tons in 2025 [24]. - Maintenance: There are many domestic methanol plants under maintenance, with some in long - term shutdown, and the maintenance situation varies by region and enterprise [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: This week, China's methanol production was 1898825 tons, an increase of 29100 tons or 1.56% from last week, and the industry capacity utilization rate was 83.98%, a 1.56% increase month - on - month. There are also charts showing methanol production and capacity utilization in China and different regions over the years from 2018 - 2025 [4][27]. - Import - related: Charts show China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [36]. - Cost and Profit: Charts present the production cost and profit of methanol from different raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [41][45]. 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE in China from 2020 - 2025 [51]. - Downstream Profit: Charts show the production profits of methanol downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [59]. - Downstream Procurement Volume: Charts show the procurement volumes of methanol by downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025, including MTO and traditional downstream industries [67][72]. - Traditional Downstream Raw Material Inventory: Charts show the raw material inventories of traditional downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [77]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: Charts show the weekly methanol factory inventories in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [82]. - Port Inventory: Charts show the weekly methanol port inventories in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025. As of July 23, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 339800 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons or 3.55% from the previous period; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 244800 tons, an increase of 1700 tons or 0.70% from the previous period. This week, methanol port inventories unexpectedly decreased, and the unloading speed was much lower than expected, while South China ports continued to accumulate inventory [4][88].