国泰君安期货能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass market is expected to experience a phased decline. Despite short - term factors boosting the market, weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory will lead to a market downturn, though the downside space at low levels is limited [2]. - The soda ash market is also likely to have a phased decline. The futures market's previous short - squeeze and subsequent short - covering rally may not be sustainable. High production, high inventory, and large delivery pressure on certain contracts will exert downward pressure on the market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - As of July 24, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% from July 17. The daily loss of float glass was 41,050 tons, down 2.73% month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. There are also potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. Potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [8][9][10]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises nationwide was 9.3 days, down 2.1% month - on - month and 7.0% year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders remained at the previous level, with no signs of improvement, and a few reported a further decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases (4.69%) month - on - month and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, 1.3 days less than the previous period. Markets in North China, East China, Central China, and South China all saw significant inventory declines [2]. Price and Profit - This week, most glass prices rose. In Hubei and Shahe, prices increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices in Shahe were around 1,240 - 1,290 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei area around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas around 1,160 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from petroleum coke was about 53 yuan/ton, and the profit from natural gas and coal fuel was about - 168 - 128 yuan/ton [19][21][27]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recently, glass sales have been good, and the market inventory has declined significantly. The de - stocking speed is comparable to that from September to October 2024, and the current futures increase is also similar. However, terminal orders have not improved significantly [33][34]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - This week, the overall trading in the domestic photovoltaic glass market improved, and the inventory decreased slowly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged from last week [42][44]. Capacity and Inventory - Under the influence of the anti - involution policy, recent supply has decreased, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. As of the end of July, the actual capacity was about 90,500 tons/day, with 414 production lines in operation. The sample inventory days were about 32.59 days, down 9.08% month - on - month [46][47][51]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The start - up of soda ash production changed little, and the potential maintenance volume was currently small. The capacity utilization rate was 83%, down from 84.1% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 408,900 tons [54][56][57]. Inventory - The inventory was about 1.865 million tons. Light soda ash inventory was 74,200 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.123 million tons. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The spot market price increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton due to the hot futures - related spot procurement. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 35 yuan/ton [64][68][74]. Basis and Spread - High production and high inventory put pressure on near - term contracts. The basis was weak, and the spread faced significant pressure. The futures market rebounded following the glass market, causing the basis to weaken continuously [70][73].